000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090343
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC SAT JAN 09 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0245 UTC.   

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST
REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE DISCUSSION AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT
SW WINDS TO GALE FORCE BY SAT EVENING-SAT NIGHT...INCREASING TO
THE 30-40 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT SAT...AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE NW WATERS.
SEAS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 20 FT IN NW
SWELL BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY
DIMINISH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO BELOW GALE FORCE LATE SUN.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS THIS REGION
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY ON SUN MORNING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 20-30 KT AND BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT BY SUNRISE. WINDS
WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY SUN AFTERNOON...WITH GALE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING ON MONDAY.
PEAK WINDS AND SEAS DURING THIS EVENT ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH WINDS TO 40 KT AND SEAS TO 15 KT...GENERALLY
OCCURRING N OF 14N. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 09.5N85W TO 05N96W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
05N98W TO 06N115W TO BEYOND 03.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 01.5N TO 06.5N BETWEEN 93W AND
106W...AND WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS W OF 116W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AT UPPER LEVELS...STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES DOMINATED MOST
OF THE AREA W OF 100W...WHILE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
CENTERED ALONG ABOUT 83W EXTENDING FROM 10N N-NE TO JUST E OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A JETSTREAM IN EXCESS OF 100 KT EXTENDS
FROM ABOUT 15N136W EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO.
 
AT THE SURFACE...A 1022 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED NEAR 28N128W AND
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 16N106W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM
07N TO 18N W OF 130W...AND FROM 09N TO 17N BETWEEN 120W AND
130W. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE N WATERS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 AND WILL MAINTAIN THE FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS N OF THE ITCZ.
THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS. 

NW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 15 TO 16 SECOND RANGE WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 15 FT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE PACIFIC
COASTAL WATERS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE PACIFIC OFFSHORE WATERS
AND COASTS OF MEXICO. THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH COMBINED SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE
WATERS W OF 97W...WHILE SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN HEIGHT.

A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING TO THE NW WATERS...AND HAS JUST
CROSSED INSIDE OF 30N140W...WITH FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS
AFFECTING THE AREA WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL NOT PROGRESS VERY FAR INTO THE FORECAST REGION BEFORE BEING
PUSHED NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY WILL BE STRONGER AND PRODUCE GALES...WHICH IS
DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PULSING WINDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS BY MON MORNING AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE SE CONUS...THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. 

$$
STRIPLING