000 AXPZ20 KNHC 082209 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI JAN 08 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE DISCUSSION AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT SW WINDS TO GALE FORCE BY SAT EVENING-SAT NIGHT...INCREASING TO THE 30-40 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT...AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE NW WATERS. SEAS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 20 FT IN NW SWELL BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO BELOW GALE FORCE LATE SUN. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY ON SUN MORNING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT AND BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY SUN AFTERNOON...WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING ON MONDAY. PEAK WINDS AND SEAS DURING THIS EVENT ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS TO 40 KT AND SEAS TO 15 KT...GENERALLY OCCURRING N OF 14N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N85W TO 05N96W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N97WTO 06N110W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 04.5N130W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 87W AND 105W...AND WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS W OF 122W. ...DISCUSSION... AT UPPER LEVELS...STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES DOMINATED MOST OF THE AREA W OF 110W...WHILE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED ALONG ABOUT 88W EXTENDING FROM 10N TO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. A JETSTREAM IN EXCESS OF 100 KT EXTENDS FROM ABOUT 17N130W EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...AND INCREASES TO NEAR 125 KT ACROSS MEXICO PER RECENT NESDIS SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1023 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED NEAR 28N128W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 16N103W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 07N TO 19N W OF 128W...AND FROM 07N TO 17N BETWEEN 118W AND 128W. A TROUGH HAS MOVED ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE INTO THE FAR NW MEXICO...PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29.5N. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE GULF CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE N WATERS OVER THE NEXT 24- 48 AND WILL MAINTAIN THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE WEST- CENTRAL WATERS N OF THE ITCZ. NW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 15 TO 16 SECOND RANGE WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 15 FT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE PACIFIC OFFSHORE WATERS AND COASTS OF MEXICO. THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH COMBINED SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE WATERS W OF 100W. A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING TO THE NW WATERS...AND IS CURRENTLY REACHING NEAR 30N140W...WITH FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AFFECTING THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N133W TO 28N140W. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT PROGRESS VERY FAR INTO THE FORECAST REGION BEFORE BEING PUSHED NORTHWARD BY TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY WILL BE STRONGER AND PRODUCE GALES...IS DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PULSING WINDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS BY MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE SE CONUS...THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. $$ STRIPLING