000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080957
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC FRI JAN 08 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0915 UTC.   

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN WATERS AND THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT WINDS TO
MINIMAL GALE FORCE. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE NW WATERS.
SEAS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 23 FT IN NW SWELL
SUNDAY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS NEAR 05N96W AND CONTINUES ALONG 06N110W TO
03N120W TO 05N130W TO BEYOND 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01N TO 06N BETWEEN 85W AND 105W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1024 MB CENTERED NEAR 27N134W EXTENDS A RIDGE
SE TO NEAR 20N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 06N TO 13N W OF 120W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF CALIFORNIA
WHERE THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG W
WINDS N OF 29N. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE GULF
CALIFORNIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRES
MENTIONED ABOVE AND THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG NW WINDS N OF 28N E OF 115W. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT
OR LESS LATER THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN
FORECAST WATERS THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THUS MAINTAINING FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ. 

NW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 15 TO 19 SECOND RANGE WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 16 FT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE PACIFIC COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY SUN. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE PENINSULA AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND. 

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW WATERS ON FRI WITH STRONG TO
NEAR GALE WINDS AFFECTING THIS AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT
PROGRESS VERY FAR INTO THE AREA BEFORE BEING PUSHED NORTHWARD BY
FRI NIGHT. THE SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
WILL BE STRONGER AND IS DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION. 

FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL START TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S.A. WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG MEXICO. 

$$
NR