000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080311
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC FRI JAN 08 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.   

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN WATERS AND THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT WINDS TO
MINIMAL GALE FORCE. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE NW WATERS.
SEAS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 25 FT IN NW SWELL
SUNDAY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N89W TO 06N103W TO 07N110W TO
04N120W TO 06N130W TO BEYOND 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1024 MB CENTERED NEAR 26N134W EXTENDS A RIDGE
SE TO NEAR 20N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 08N TO 15N W OF 120W. A
TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. FRESH TO STRONG
SW WINDS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29N. THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE GULF CALIFORNIA EARLY
FRI MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRES
MENTIONED ABOVE AND THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG W-NW WINDS N OF 27N E OF 120W. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20
KT OR LESS AS THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD. THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND MAINTAIN
THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE
ITCZ. 

NW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 15 TO 17 SECOND RANGE WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 15 FT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE PACIFIC COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH LATE FRI. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE PENINSULA AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
THE FORECAST WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH COMBINED
SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE WATERS W OF 100W.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACH TO THE NW WATERS ON FRI WITH
STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS AFFECTING THIS AREA. THE COLD FRONT
WILL NOT PROGRESS VERY FAR INTO THE AREA BEFORE BEING PUSHED
NORTHWARD BY FRI NIGHT. THE SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY WILL BE STRONGER AND IS DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION.

$$
AL