000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072111
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC THU JAN 07 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.   

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07.5N89W TO 05N100W TO 07N110W TO
04N123W TO05N129W TO BEYOND 01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 05N TO 08.5NBETWEEN 128W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB CENTERED NEAR 26N134W EXTENDS A RIDGE
SE TO NEAR 21N111W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM FROM 08N TO 18N W OF 130W
AND FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. A TROUGH IS MOVING
ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS ARE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT
OR LESS ACROSS THE GULF CALIFORNIA EARLY FRI MORNING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRES MENTIONED ABOVE
AND THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG W-NW
WINDS N OF 27.5N E OF 122W. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS
AS THE TROUGH MOVED FURTHER EASTWARD. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND MAINTAIN THE FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE ITCZ. 

NW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 15 TO 17 SECOND RANGE WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 15 FT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE PACIFIC COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH LATE FRI. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE PENINSULA AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
THE FORECAST WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH COMBINED
SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE WATERS W OF 100W.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACH TO THE NW WATERS ON FRI WITH
STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS AFFECTING THIS AREA. THE COLD FRONT
WILL NOT PROGRESS VERY FAR INTO THE AREA BEFORE BEING PUSHED
NORTHWARD BY FRI NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE FORECAST WATERS BY SUN MORNING. THERE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
BUILDING SEAS UP TO 19 FT SUNDAY.

$$
AL