000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC THU JAN 07 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.   

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT EVIDENT AT THE PRESENCE TIME. THE ITCZ
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N88W TO 06N100W TO 07N107W TO 04N120W TO
05N130W TO BEYOND 01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND
128W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 06.5N TO 08.5N BETWEEN 128W AND
131W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE.
FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS ARE NOTED PER AN ASCAT PASS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY MOVING INTO
THE FAR NW MEXICO. AS THE FRONT MOVES EWD...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE GULF CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING. A 1024 MB HIGH PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 26N136W
EXTENDING A RIDGE EWD TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH
PRES AND DEEP LOW PRES FARTHER NORTH IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG W-NW WINDS N OF 28N E OF 130W. IN ADDITION...THE
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SAME HIGH PRES AND LOWER PRES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICS...PARTICULARLY FROM 08N TO
20N W OF 120W. THE HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOUR WHILE SLIGHTLY WEAKENING. UNDER THIS WEATHER
PATTERN...EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS ACROSS THE N WATERS E OF 130W
WHILE THE AREA OF TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST. 

MEANWHILE 15 TO 17 SECOND PERIOD NW SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 10
TO 15 FT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH LATE FRI...POSING A POTENTIAL
HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE PENINSULA
AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT PRIMARILY IN
NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA BETWEEN LOS CABOS AND
CABO CORRIENTES THROUGH FRI AS WELL. SEAS TO 13 FT CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE AREA OF THE TRADES...MIXING WITH LONGER PERIOD
NW SWELL. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
COMBINED SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE REGION W
OF 100W.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING TO THE NW CORNER ON FRI. EXPECT
FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFFECTING THE WATERS
NW OF A LINE FROM 30N135W TO 28N140W BY FRI MORNING WITH SEAS OF
8-11 FT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY FRI
EVENING EXTENDING FROM 30N136W TO BEYOND 29N140W...THEN WILL
LIFT QUICKLY TO THE N AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THIS SECOND COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG
SW WINDS NW OF A LINE FROM 30N134W TO 26N140W BY SAT MORNING
WITH SEAS OF 9-13 FT IN NW SWELL. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE FORECAST WATERS BY SUN MORNING. AT THIS TIME...MARINE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
BUILDING SEAS UP TO 19 FT IN ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELL.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED NE
WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS LATER TODAY. PULSING WINDS OF 20 KT
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS.  

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS THIS REGION
IS EXPECTED ON SUN WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT PERSISTING
FROM SUN MORNING THROUGH MON MORNING. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS TO
AROUND 10 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF.

$$
GR