000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070926
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC THU JAN 07 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.   

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 06N90W. AN ITCZ REACHES
FROM 06N90W TO 05N110W TO 03N118W TO 05N130W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRES
FARTHER TO THE WEST. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH
PRES AND DEEP LOW PRES FARTHER NORTH IS RESULTING IN A LONG
FETCH OF STRONG TO GALE FORCE NW TO W WINDS NORTH OF THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERN LIMIT OF THESE WINDS REACHES TO 29N
BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. IN ADDITION...THE WESTERLY FLOW IS
FUNNELING THROUGH GAPS ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE ALONG 30N
AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS WERE
CAPTURED ON A 0430 UTC ASCAT PASS. DESPITE A LIMITED WEST TO
EAST FETCH ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE STRONG AND
PERSISTENT GAP WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD AS HIGH AS 6 FT
THROUGH TODAY...SUBSIDING INTO FRIDAY AS WINDS DIMINISH. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BE MINIMAL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF 30N INTO FRI. MEANWHILE 15 TO 17 SECOND
PERIOD NW SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 10 TO 15 FT WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
THROUGH LATE FRI...POSING A POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE PENINSULA AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE AREA BETWEEN LOS CABOS AND CABO CORRIENTES THROUGH
FRI AS WELL. LOOKING AHEAD...THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT EAST TO
NEAR 25N125W BY SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE SWELL
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT AS WELL SAT AND SUN.

S OF 15N E OF 120W...WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
THROUGH THIS MORNING REACHING 25 KT BUT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8
FT...DIMINISHING TO 20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GAP WINDS
THROUGH PAPAGAYO WILL PULSE THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS BUT REMAIN
20 KT OR LESS. MEANWHILE NW SWELL 15 TO 17 SECOND NW SWELL WILL
REACH AS FAR AS 100W BY LATE FRI WITH SEAS 8 TO 9 FT...BEFORE
SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT THROUGH SAT.

ELSEWHERE...THE HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF 20N WILL ALLOW AREAS OF
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS TO PERSIST FROM 05N TO 15N W OF 115W
THROUGH THU. SEAS TO 14 FT CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA OF
STRONG TRADES...MIXING WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL. THE LONG
PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH COMBINED SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER
CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE WATERS W OF 100W. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE FAR NW WATERS EARLY FRIDAY WITH STRONG TO NEAR
GALE WINDS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS E OF THE FRONT.  

$$
CHRISTENSEN