000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070305
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC THU JAN 07 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.   

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N92W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 06N92W TO 06N110W TO 05N122W...THEN RESUMES FROM 05N126W TO
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N
OF THE ITCZ W OF 128W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1024 MB CENTERED W OF THE AREA NEAR 26N141W
EXTENDS A RIDGE E TO NEAR 26N116W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS FROM 06N TO
16N W OF 130W AND FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. LONG
PERIOD NW SWELL WITH LEADING EDGE IN THE 20-21 SECOND RANGE IS
PROPAGATING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL IS
CONTINUING TO IMPACT BAJA CALIFORNIA CREATING DANGEROUS NEAR
SHORE CONDITIONS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL WILL REACH THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL BRING DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS TO THESE ISLANDS. COMBINED SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SWELL ARE REACHING NEAR 20 FT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS.
PREVIOUS NW SWELL IS COVERING MUCH OF THE WESTERN WATERS AS WELL
WITH COMBINED SEAS OF GREATER THAN 8 FT COVERING MUCH OF THE
AREA W OF 100W. A COLD FRONT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA...SW WINDS IN THE
20-30 KT RANGE WILL IMPACT THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N
OF 30N BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS EARLY FRIDAY. 

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE
ITCZ. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH COMBINED SEAS 8 FT OR
GREATER CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE WATERS W OF 100W. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW WATERS EARLY FRIDAY WITH STRONG TO
NEAR GALE WINDS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS E OF THE FRONT.  

GAP WINDS... 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REACH 25 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND DIMINISH TO 20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THURSDAY.

$$
AL