000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062139
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC WED JAN 06 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.   

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 05N90W TO 05N95W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N95W TO06N103W TO 04N116W TO 05N120W...THEN
RESUMES FROM 05N124W TO04N126W TO 06N136W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB CENTERED W OF THE AREA NEAR 26N142W
EXTENDS A RIDGE E TO NEAR 26N116W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS 07N TO 13N W
OF 128W AND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 120W AND130W. LONG PERIOD NW
SWELL WITH LEADING EDGE IN THE 20-21 SECOND RANGE IS PROPAGATING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL IS CONTINUING TO
IMPACT BAJA CALIFORNIA CREATING DANGEROUS NEAR SHORE CONDITIONS.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL WILL REACH THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TO THESE
ISLANDS TONIGHT. COMBINED SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL ARE
REACHING NEAR 20 FT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. PREVIOUS NW
SWELL IS COVERING MUCH OF THE WESTERN WATERS AS WELL WITH
COMBINED SEAS OF GREATER THAN 8 FT COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA W
OF 100W. A COLD FRONT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA...SW WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT
RANGE WILL IMPACT THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS EARLY FRIDAY. 

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE
ITCZ. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH COMBINED SEAS 8 FT OR
GREATER CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE WATERS W OF 100W. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW WATERS EARLY FRIDAY WITH STRONG TO
NEAR GALE WINDS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS E OF THE FRONT.  

GAP WINDS... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WITH THE WINDS VEERED OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND ONLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...WINDS
AND SEAS HAVE DECREASED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUNATEPEC THIS AFTERNOON. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REACH 25 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND DIMINISH TO 20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THURSDAY.

$$
AL