000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061552
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC WED JAN 06 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.   

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 05N95W. THE ITCZ BEGINS
NEAR 05N95W AND CONTINUES TO 05N121W...THEN RESUMES FROM 05N123W
TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 04N TO 08N W OF 117W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL
BRING MODERATE TO FRESH ON SHORE FLOW TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE COAST. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY LATE TODAY AS THE UPPER
SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT LIFTS NE OF THE AREA. A 14 TO 19 SECOND
PERIOD NW SWELL WITH COMBINED WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 13 FT IMPACT
THE ENTIRE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS
TODAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS
FRONT...BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TO BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE AND STRONG WESTERLY GAP WINDS INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM EARLY THU THROUGH FRI MORNING.
ADDITIONAL NW SWELL IN EXCESS OF 12 FT WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS BY LATE FRI. THE
PERSISTENT LARGE AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL PRESENT POTENTIALLY
HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...THIN PLUMES OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS
ARE ONGOING THROUGH BOTH THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO.
THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. HOWEVER...PAPAGAYO
WILL SEE ANOTHER PULSE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU. NW SWELL OF 8
TO 9 FT WITH PERIODS OF 15 TO 16 SECONDS WILL PROPAGATE AS FAR
AS 105W. REINFORCING NW SWELL WILL REACH AS FAR AS 100W BY
FRI WITH PERIODS OF 15 TO 18 SECONDS.

ELSEWHERE...THE PATTERN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH A SERIES
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST TO EAST TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA SUPPORTING SEVERAL COLD FRONTS CROSSING THE WATERS N
OF 20N WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS
ALONG 140W TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU. THE SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD N OF 20N W OF 120W THU AND FRI...SUPPORTING AREAS OF FRESH
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS INTO THE DEEP TROPICS FROM ROUGHLY 05N TO
15N W OF 115W BY LATE THU. MEANWHILE SUCCESSIVE GROUPS OF NW
SWELL WITH PERIODS RANGING FROM 16 TO 21 SECONDS AND COMBINED
WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 12 FT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. WAVES ARE REACHING 13 TO 19 FT OR GREATER OVER THE
REGION N OF 20N IN NW SWELL. THE NW SWELL WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 12
FT THROUGH SAT ACROSS REGION...JUST AHEAD OF ANOTHER GROUP OF
NW SWELL APPROACHING THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

$$
NR