000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060910 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED JAN 06 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N87W TO 05N95W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N95W TO 05N105W TO 04N115W TO 06N120W...THEN RESUMES FROM 04N123W TO 02N128W TO 056N135W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS W OF130W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 120W...A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL BRING FRESH ON SHORE FLOW TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE COAST...AND A BRIEF ROUND OF STRONG SW FLOW THROUGH GAPS ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY LATE TODAY AS THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT LIFTS NE OF THE AREA. A 14 TO 16 SECOND PERIOD NW SWELL THAT ACCOMPANIED THE EARLIER FRONT WITH COMBINED WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT IS IMPACTING THE ENTIRE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AS WELL AS THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. REINFORCING NW SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 12 TO 13 FT WILL REACHING THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE N OF 29N THROUGH THIS MORNING. FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU...A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FRONT...BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TO BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND STRONG WESTERLY GAP WINDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY EARLY THU...WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN NW SWELL REACH AS FAR EAST AS THE REGION BETWEEN LOS CABOS AND CABO CORRIENTES AT THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL NW SWELL IN EXCESS OF 12 FT THAT WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS BY LATE FRI. THE PERSISTENT LARGE AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL PRESENT POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. S OF 15N E OF 110W...THIN PLUMES OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ARE ONGOING THROUGH BOTH THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO...BUT WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PAPAGAYO WILL SEE ANOTHER PULSE TONIGHT...THEN GAP WIND ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE...NW SWELL OF 8 TO 9 FT WITH PERIODS OF 12 TO 16 SECONDS WILL PROPAGATE AS FAR AS 105W. LOOKING AHEAD... REINFORCING NW SWELL WILL REACH AS FAR AS 105W BY LATE WEEK WITH PERIODS OF 15 TO 18 SECONDS. ELSEWHERE...THE PATTERN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH A SERIES OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST TO EAST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUPPORTING SEVERAL COLD FRONTS CROSSING THE WATERS N OF 20N. THESE SYSTEMS ARE GETTING WEAKER HOWEVER...AND THE UPPER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS ALONG 140W BY TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N OF 20N W OF 120W THU AND FRI...SUPPORTING AREAS OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE DEEP TROPICS FROM ROUGHLY 05N TO 15N W OF 115W BY LATE THU. MEANWHILE SUCCESSIVE GROUPS OF NW SWELL WITH PERIODS RANGING FROM 16 TO 19 SECONDS AND COMBINED WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 12 FT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...MIXING WITH INCREASING SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL DUE TO THE RESURGENT TRADE WIND FLOW BY LATE WED. WAVES ARE REACHING 15 TO 20 FT OR GREATER OVER THE REGION N OF 20N IN NW SWELL. LOOKING AHEAD...THE NW SWELL WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 12 FT THROUGH SAT ACROSS REGION...JUST AHEAD OF ANOTHER GROUP OF NW APPROACHING THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. $$ CHRISTENSEN