000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052130
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC TUE JAN 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.   

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N86W TO 04N92W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 04N92W TO 05N116W THEN RESUMES FROM 05N122W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS W
OF 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N120W TO 23N127W TO 21N140W WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG
TRADEWINDS FROM 06N TO 12N W OF 125W AS DEPICTED IN THE LATEST
ASCAT PASS. THE COLD FRONT HAS HELPED USHER IN A SET OF LONG
PERIOD...21 SECOND...SWELL. COMBINED SEAS ARE REACHING NEAR 20
FT OVER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN WATERS ASSOCIATED TO THIS SWELL.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL TRAIN WILL REACH BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE LATER TONIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WED. THIS WILL BRING DANGEROUS NEAR
SHORE CONDITIONS TO THESE AREAS.

PREVIOUS NW SWELL PROPAGATING INTO THE AREA IS MAINTAINING SEAS
GREATER THAN 8 FT OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN WATERS W OF 110W.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL
HELP MAINTAIN THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS N OF THE
ITCZ. THE NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE
FORECAST WATERS WITH COMBINED SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER COVERING THE
WATERS W OF 100W BY THU AFTERNOON. A SECOND COLD FRONT NW OF THE
AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS WED. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL USHER IN ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. PERSISTENT LARGE AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
PRESENTS POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS TO THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST.

GAP WINDS... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
HAVE STARTED TO VEER TODAY WHICH HAS DIMINISHED WINDS OVER THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BELOW GALE FORCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY WED AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. WINDS WILL REACH 25 KT DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DIMINISH TO 20 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.  

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS WILL HELP FOR WINDS TO REACH 25 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
PART OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS
THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER SOUTHWARD AND STARTS TO WEAKEN. A SECOND
COLD FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHEN WINDS OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. 

$$
AL