000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051559
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC TUE JAN 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.   

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC ITCZ CONTINUES TO FUNNEL GALE FORCE WINDS
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT
MINIMAL GALE FORCE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRES
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WANE...AS A RESULT SEAS ARE SUBSIDING
TO A MAX NEAR 11 FT. THE SEAS WILL FURTHER SUBSIDE TO 9 FT THIS
AFTERNOON AND LESS THAN 8 FT BY TONIGHT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS ON THE GALE AREA.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 04N92W. THE ITCZ AXIS
BEGINS NEAR 04N92W AND CONTINUES TO 04N116W...THEN RESUMES FROM
04N121W TO 01N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N TO
07N W OF 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT REACHING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WILL
DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY LATE TODAY...BRINGING FRESH ON SHORE
FLOW TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE COAST...AND A BRIEF ROUND OF
STRONG SW FLOW THROUGH GAPS ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. THE SECOND FRONT
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY THU MORNING AS THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR
THE FRONT LIFTS NE OF THE AREA. A 14 TO 16 SECOND PERIOD NW
SWELL THAT ACCOMPANIED THE EARLIER FRONT WITH COMBINED WAVE
HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT IS IMPACTING THE COAST OF WESTERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. REINFORCING NW SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF
12 TO 14 FT WILL IMPACT THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WED.
LOOKING AHEAD...A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS
FRONT...BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TO BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY EARLY
THU...WITH ADDITIONAL NW SWELL IN EXCESS OF 12 FT THAT WILL
IMPACT THE ENTIRE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. PERSISTENT LARGE AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL PRESENTS
POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...A THIN PLUME OF GAP WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
REPEATS AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. ELSEWHERE WEAK WIND
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK...ALTHOUGH 15 TO 17 SECOND NW
SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL REACH AS FAR EAST
AS 105W LATE TODAY INTO WED...MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY
SWELL AND SHORTER PERIOD SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GAP WIND AREAS.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH.

ELSEWHERE...A SERIES OF VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO EAST NORTH OF THE REGION...SUPPORTING
THE MOVEMENT OF SEVERAL COLD FRONTS OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY REACHING FROM 30N122W TO 23N130W TO
21N140W WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N THROUGH EARLY
WED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL START TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED STARTING
WED...ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILD OVER THE WATERS N OF 20N
W OF 130W BY LATE WED. THIS WILL ALLOW TRADE WIND FLOW TO
INCREASE FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE DEEP TROPICS IN THE AREA FROM
05N TO 15N W OF 120W LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY THU. SUCCESSIVE
GROUPS OF NW SWELL WITH PERIODS RANGING FROM 16 TO 19 SECONDS
AND COMBINED WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 12 FT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION...MIXING WITH INCREASING SHORTER PERIOD NE
SWELL DUE TO THE RESURGENT TRADE WIND FLOW BY LATE WED. WAVES
WILL REACH 15 TO 20 FT OR GREATER OVER THE REGION N OF 20N IN NW
SWELL THROUGH MID WEEK.

$$
NR