000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050912 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE JAN 05 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC ITCZ CONTINUES TO FUNNEL GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT MINIMAL GALE FORCE THROUGH THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THE PRES GRADIENT IS BEGINNING TO WANE. AS A RESULT SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE WITH A MAX SEA NEAR 13 FT. THE SEAS WILL FURTHER SUBSIDE TO 10 FT LATER MORNING AND LESS THAN 8 FT BY TONIGHT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE GALE AREA. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 118W FROM 03N TO 08N. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N93W TO 03N100W TO 05N116W THEN RESUMES FROM 04N120W TO 06N125W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 120W...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT REACHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY LATE TODAY...BRINGING FRESH ON SHORE FLOW TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE COAST...AND A BRIEF ROUND OF STRONG SW FLOW THROUGH GAPS ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY LATE WED AS THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT LIFTS NE OF THE AREA. A 14 TO 16 SECOND PERIOD NW SWELL THAT ACCOMPANIED THE EARLIER FRONT WITH COMBINED WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT IS IMPACTING THE COAST NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA. THIS SWELL WILL REACH BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. REINFORCING NW SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 12 TO 14 FT ARE REACHING GUADALUPE ISLAND CURRENTLY...AND WILL IMPACT THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WED. LOOKING AHEAD...A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FRONT...BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TO BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY EARLY THU...WITH ADDITIONAL NW SWELL IN EXCESS OF 12 FT THAT WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS BY LATE FRI. THE PERSISTENT LARGE AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL PRESENT POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. S OF 15N E OF 110W...A THIN PLUME OF GAP WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING BUT REPEAT AGAIN TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT. ELSEWHERE WEAK WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK...ALTHOUGH 15 TO 17 SECOND NW SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL REACH AS FAR EAST AS 105W LATE TUE INTO WED...MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL AND SHORTER PERIOD SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GAP WIND AREAS. ELSEWHERE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH EARLY MORNING THEN DISSIPATE. ELSEWHERE...A SERIES OF VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO EAST NORTH OF THE REGION...SUPPORTING THE MOVEMENT OF SEVERAL COLD FRONTS OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY REACHING FROM 30N127W TO 24N135W TO 23N140W WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N THROUGH EARLY WED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL START TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED STARTING WED...ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILD OVER THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF 130W BY LATE WED. THIS WILL ALLOW TRADE WIND FLOW TO INCREASE FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE DEEP TROPICS IN THE AREA FROM 05N TO 15N W OF 120W LATE TUE THROUGH WED. MEANWHILE SUCCESSIVE GROUPS OF NW SWELL WITH PERIODS RANGING FROM 16 TO 19 SECONDS AND COMBINED WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 12 FT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...MIXING WITH INCREASING SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL DUE TO THE RESURGENT TRADE WIND FLOW BY LATE WED. WAVES WILL REACH 15 TO 20 FT OR GREATER OVER THE REGION N OF 20N IN NW SWELL THROUGH MID WEEK. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS TIME. $$ CHRISTENSEN