000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050338
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC TUE JAN 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.   

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC ITCZ CONTINUES TO FUNNEL GALE FORCE WINDS
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT
MINIMAL GALE FORCE THROUGH TUE MORNING. HOWEVER THE PRES
GRADIENT IS BEGINNING TO WANE. AS A RESULT SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO
SUBSIDE WITH A MAX SEA NEAR 13 FT. THE SEAS WILL FURTHER SUBSIDE
TO 10 FT TUE MORNING AND LESS THAN 8 FT BY TUE NIGHT. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE GALE AREA.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 117W FROM 03N TO 08N. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 03N93W TO 02N104W TO 04N116W THEN RESUMES FROM 03N119W TO
05N130W TO 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 20N E OF 120W... A FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS EXTENDS
FROM OVER MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 28N111W INTO
THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 25N112W TO 20N117W. THE UPPER SUPPORT
HAS MOVED E OF THE AREA ALLOWING FRONT TO WEAKEN AND IS EXPECTED
DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS IT DRIFTS FURTHER ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS FRONT IS THE NW SWELL
BRINGING WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT TO THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT WILL SPREAD S TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS BY
EARLY TUE NIGHT. 

ELSEWHERE N OF 20N...A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N128W
TO 24N140W AND WILL REACH FROM 30N118W TO 25N122W TO 21N131W BY
TUE EVENING. STRONG SW WINDS PRECEDE THIS FRONT WITH STRONG NW
WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT TO BEYOND 140W. SEAS ARE BUILDING AND
HAVE REACHED 20 FT IN THE FAR NW CORNER. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP
EASTWARD ACROSS WATERS N OF THE 20N THROUGH WED EVENING. STRONG
NW WINDS WILL TRAIL THIS FRONT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. THE NW
SWELL IS REINFORCING A PRE-EXISTING GROUP OF NW SWELL WITH 8 TO
12 FT WAVE HEIGHTS ACTIVE OVER MOST OF THE AREA W OF 110W.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SECOND REACHING
30N140W TUE EVENING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
WINDS AND ANOTHER INCREASE IS SEAS REACHING A MAX OF 21 FT
BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER IN THE WEEK. 

S OF 15N E OF 110W...A THIN PLUME OF GAP WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO HAS DIMINISHED BUT WILL REPEAT AGAIN
OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT. WEAK WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK.

SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE PASSING FRONTS COMBINED
WITH THIS WESTWARD MOVING TROUGH ALONG 117W WILL ALLOW FOR THE
RESUMPTION OF STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 06N TO 12N W OF 134W
STARTING TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU.

$$
PAW