000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC MON JAN 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.   

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC ITCZ CONTINUES TO FUNNEL GALE FORCE WINDS
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT
MINIMAL GALE FORCE INTO TUE MORNING. AS A RESULT SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 14 FT RANGE TODAY THEN SUBSIDE
TO 8 TO 10 FT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE GALE AREA.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N86W TO 04N92W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 04N92W TO 02N103W TO 04N115W THEN RESUMES FROM 03N119W TO
05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N114W ALONG
27N114W TO 23N118W. THE UPPER SUPPORT IS WEAKENING THROUGH
TONIGHT ALLOWING THE FRONT TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF CALIFORNIA. BEHIND
THE FRONT...MODERATE TO FRESH ONSHORE FLOW WILL IMPACT BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A 14
TO 16 SECOND PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH
COMBINED WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT ALREADY HAS REACHED THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND WILL REACH BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY TUE. 

S OF 15N E OF 110W...A THIN PLUME OF GAP WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO HAVE DIMINISHED BUT WILL REPEAT AGAIN
TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT. WEAK WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
WEEK.

ELSEWHERE...A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N133W TO
26N140W AND WILL REACH FROM 30N121W TO 26N124W TO 22N132W BY TUE
EVENING. STRONG SW WINDS PRECEDE THIS FRONT WITH STRONG NW WINDS
FOLLOWING THE FRONT TO BEYOND 140W. SEAS ARE BUILDING AND WILL
BE 20 FT LATER TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS
WATERS N OF THE 20N THROUGH LATE TUE...WITH THE STRONG NW WINDS
PERSISTING N OF 27N E OF 133W BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY
TUE. THE NW SWELL IS REINFORCING A PRE-EXISTING GROUP OF NW
SWELL WITH 8 TO 12 FT WAVE HEIGHTS ACTIVE OVER MOST OF THE AREA
W OF 120W. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FIRST
ENTERING TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...AGAIN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW
SWELL. 

SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE PASSING FRONTS COMBINED
WITH THIS WESTWARD MOVING TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR THE RESUMPTION
OF STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 06N TO 15N W OF 130W FROM TUE
NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING.

$$
PAW