000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041449 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON JAN 04 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC ITCZ CONTINUES TO FUNNEL GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT MINIMAL GALE FORCE INTO TUE MORNING. AS A RESULT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 14 FT RANGE EARLY TODAY THEN SUBSIDE TO 8 TO 10 FT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE GALE AREA. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N86W TO 03N91W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N91W TO 01N105W TO 04N113W THEN RESUMES FROM 03N119W TO 04N130W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 90W AND 93W... FROM 06.5N TO 08.5N BETWEEN 133W AND 139W...AND ALSO FROM 03N TO 05N W OF 138W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 08N76W TO 03N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 07N E OF 89W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 120W... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N118W TO 24N120W TO 19N133W SUPPORTED BY A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE UPPER SUPPORT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH LATE TODAY ALLOWING THE FRONT TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF CALIFORNIA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WITH SHIPS PHEO RECENTLY REPORTING WINDS AROUND 30 KT AND 7 FT SEAS. BEHIND THE FRONT...MODERATE TO FRESH ONSHORE FLOW WILL IMPACT BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A 14 TO 16 SECOND PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH COMBINED WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT REACHING THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY TUE. LOOKING AHEAD...A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW AND ENTER THE WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY LATE TUE...ACCOMPANIED BY REINFORCING NW SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 10 TO 12 FT. THIS WILL BRING POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST BY WED. S OF 15N E OF 110W...A THIN PLUME OF GAP WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING BUT REPEAT AGAIN TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT. WEAK WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK...ALTHOUGH 15 TO 17 SECOND NW SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL REACH AS FAR EAST AS 105W BY TUE...MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL AND SHORTER PERIOD SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GAP WIND AREAS. ELSEWHERE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH EARLY MORNING THEN DISSIPATE. ELSEWHERE...A COLD FRONT ARRIVING AT 30N140W THIS MORNING WILL REACH FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W THIS EVENING. STRONG NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY 16 TO 21 FT NW SWELL. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 27N WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS WATERS N OF THE 20N THROUGH LATE TUE...WITH THE STRONG NW WINDS PERSISTING N OF 27N E OF 133W BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY TUE. THE NW SWELL IS REINFORCING A PRE-EXISTING GROUP OF NW SWELL WITH 8 TO 12 FT WAVE HEIGHTS ACTIVE OVER MOST OF THE AREA W OF 120W. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FIRST TUE THROUGH THU...AGAIN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW SWELL. FARTHER SOUTH...AN UPPER TROUGH FROM 08N TO 20N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W IS SUPPORTING MODEST CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ BETWEEN 135W AND 140W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 09N115W TO 03N116W. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE PASSING FRONTS COMBINED WITH THIS WESTWARD MOVING TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR THE RESUMPTION OF STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 05N TO 10N W OF 130W FROM LATE TUE THROUGH WED MORNING. $$ LEWITSKY