000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040907
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC MON JAN 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.   

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC ITCZ CONTINUES TO FUNNEL GALE FORCE WINDS
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT
MINIMAL GALE FORCE INTO TUE MORNING. AS A RESULT SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 14 FT RANGE EARLY TODAY THEN
SUBSIDE TO 8 TO 10 FT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS ON THE GALE AREA.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N88W TO 02N100W TO 06N120W TO
BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM
04N TO 07N W OF 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE WATERS NEAR
GUADALUPE ISLAND AND OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE...SUPPORTED BY A
VIGOROUS  SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS MOVING
EAST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE UPPER SUPPORT WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH LATE TODAY ALLOWING THE FRONT TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
CALIFORNIA. THE FRONT WILL BRING MODERATE TO FRESH ONSHORE FLOW
TO BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. 14 TO 16 SECOND PERIOD NW SWELL WILL
ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH COMBINED WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF
8 FT REACHING THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TODAY...BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY TUE.
LOOKING AHEAD...A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW AND ENTER THE
WATERS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY LATE TUE...ACCOMPANIED BY
REINFORCING NW SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 10 TO 12 FT. THIS WILL
BRING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS TO THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST WED.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...A 0345 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED GAP WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THIS PULSE
WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING BUT REPEAT AGAIN TONIGHT AND
TUE NIGHT. WEAK WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
WEEK...ALTHOUGH 15 TO 17 SECOND NW SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL REACH AS FAR EAST AS 105W BY TUE...MIXING
WITH SOUTHERLY SWELL AND SHORTER PERIOD SWELL GENERATED FROM THE
GAP WIND AREAS. ELSEWHERE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY MORNING THEN
DISSIPATE.

ELSEWHERE...A COLD FRONT NW OF THE AREA WILL CROSS WEST OF 140W
TODAY...REACHING FROM 30N130W TO 25N140W BY THIS EVENING. STRONG
NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE INTO THE AREA N OF
28N W OF 130W TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY 15 TO 20 FT NW SWELL. THE
FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS WATERS N OF THE 25N THROUGH
LATE TUE...WITH THE STRONG NW WINDS PERSISTING BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH EARLY TUE. THE NW SWELL IS REINFORCING A PRE-EXISTING
GROUP OF NW SWELL WITH 8 TO 12 FT WAVE HEIGHTS ACTIVE OVER MOST
OF THE AREA W OF 120W. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE
FIRST TUE THROUGH THU...AGAIN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW SWELL.
FARTHER SOUTH...AN UPPER TROUGH FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 130W AND
140W IS SUPPORTING MODEST CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ BETWEEN 135W
AND 140W. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE PASSING FRONTS
WILL ALLOW A RESUMPTION OF STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 05N TO 10N W
OF 130W FROM LATE TUE THROUGH WED.

$$
CHRISTENSEN