000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040308
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC MON JAN 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.   

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC ITCZ IS HELPING TO
FUNNEL GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT MINIMAL GALE FORCE INTO EARLY TUE
MORNING. AS A RESULT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 9 TO 11
FT RANGE. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE GALE AREA.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 5N87W ALONG 3N102W 6N122W TO 5N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 7N W OF
136W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 126W
AND 132W. 

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 140W...A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR
24N116W AND IS SHIFTING SE AND WEAKENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE W. THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 32N128W TO 25N120W WILL LIFT TO THE NE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT TURNED
SURFACE TROUGH AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THE SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 30N118W ALONG 24N122W TO 20N131W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM A 1004 MB LOW NEAR 33N124W ALONG 25N123W TO
22N133W. THE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WHILE THE COLD
FRONT WILL WEAKEN ON MON AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA
AND DISSIPATE TUE. THE MAIN IMPACT ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE THE
ACCOMPANYING SWELL...WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER DUE TO NW SWELL
REACHING THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY MON
AFTERNOON...BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS
TUE...AND NEAR CABO CORRIENTES AND THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID WEEK. SWELLS WITH SEAS OF 12 FT OR
GREATER WILL BE USHERED IN WITH THE COLD FRONT AND WILL REACH
123W MY MON MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EARLY MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER
AREA OF NW SWELL WITH SEAS REACHING BRIEFLY TO 20 FT MON NIGHT
BEFORE SETTLING AT 18 FT TUE AFTERNOON. 

S OF 15N E OF 140W...FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL STRONG NE TO E WINDS THROUGH
THE GAP AT THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BEING ENHANCED BY OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE
EFFECTS THROUGH EARLY MORNINGS EACH NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. NE
SWELL GENERATED BY THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD DOWNWIND THROUGH TUE. 
 
TRADE WIND SWELL CONTINUES CROSS THE AREA FROM S OF 20N W OF
123W DUE TO THE HIGHER PRES N OF 20N AND THE LOWER PRES NEAR THE
ITCZ. THESE SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD MON AND TUE TO 112W
WITH FRESH WINDS WITH SEAS TO 11 FT THROUGH EARLY TUE WHEN THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA N OF 20N. THIS WILL
BUILD SEAS TO 14 FT NEAR 20N140W BY TUE AFTERNOON.  

$$
PAW