000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032209
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC SUN JAN 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.   

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC ITCZ IS HELPING TO
FUNNEL GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.
AS A RESULT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 9 TO 11 FT RANGE.
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE GALE AREA.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 4N88W ALONG 2N103W 6N113W 7N123W TO
5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN
110W AND 116W AND FROM 3N TO 8N W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR
24N117W IS SHIFTING S AND WEAKENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE W. THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND
WILL LIFT TO THE NE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS. THE LEADING COLD FRONT IS
DISSIPATING THROUGH 32N121W ALONG 27N122W TO 23N128W. A RE-
ENFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1005 MB LOW NEAR 31N125W
ALONG 27N125W TO 24N132W. THE LEADING FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
TONIGHT WHILE THE RE-ENFORCING FRONT WILL WEAKEN MON AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA AND DISSIPATE TUE. THE MAIN IMPACT
ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE THE ACCOMPANYING SWELL...WITH SEAS 8 FT
OR GREATER DUE TO NW SWELL REACHING THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE BY MON AFTERNOON...BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS TUE...AND NEAR CABO CORRIENTES AND THE
ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID WEEK. SWELLS WITH
SEAS OF 12 FT OR GREATER ARE BEING USHERED IN WITH THE RE-
ENFORCING COLD FRONT AND WILL REACH 123W EARLY TUE. A THIRD COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EARLY
TONIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER SURFACE OF NW SWELL WITH SEAS REACHING
20 FT EARLY TUE BEFORE SETTLING AT 18 FT TUE AFTERNOON. 

S OF 15N E OF 110W...FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE SAN JUAN RIVER VALLEY
BETWEEN COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA AND EXITING AS GAP WINDS IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND NEAR PUERTO SANDINO ON THE PACIFIC COAST OF
NICARAGUA. ENHANCED BY OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE EFFECTS...THE STRONG
GAP WIND PLUMES ARE BEGINNING TO WANE. NE SWELL GENERATED BY THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD DOWNWIND
THROUGH TUE. 
 
TRADE WIND SWELL CONTINUES CROSS THE AREA FROM S OF 20N W OF
123W DUE TO THE HIGHER PRES N OF 20N AND THE LOWER PRES NEAR THE
ITCZ. THESE SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD MON AND TUE TO 112W
WITH FRESH WINDS WITH SEAS TO 11 FT THROUGH EARLY TUE WHEN THE
LATEST COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA N OF 20N WHEN SEAS
BUILDING TO 14 FT NEAR 20N140W BY TUE AFTERNOON.  

$$
PAW