000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030337
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JAN 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.   

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 30N129W TO 21N140W.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA AND DISSIPATE BY LATE MON.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT IS TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY N OF 27N W OF 137W.
A SHIP WITH CALL SIGN KRGB LOCATED NEAR 29N141W REPORTED WNW
WINDS OF 34 KT AND 14 FT SEAS WHICH SUGGESTS WINDS ARE
INCREASING TO GALE FORCE...30 TO 35 KT OVER THE FAR NW PORTION
OF THE AREA. GALES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUN. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO HELP TO USHER IN A NEW SET OF NW SWELLS WITH COMBINED
SEAS REACHING CLOSE TO 20 FT TONIGHT OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF
THE AREA. SEAS OF 12 TO 18 FT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE AREA
N OF 23N THROUGH LATE SUN.  

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC ITCZ IS HELPING TO
FUNNEL GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. NWP MODELS
SUGGEST 30 TO 40 KT WINDS MAY STILL BE OCCURRING THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO  MINIMAL GALE FORCE
THROUGH MON NIGHT. AS A RESULT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
THE 9 TO 13 FT RANGE.
 
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON BOTH GALE AREAS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE AXIS OF THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N94W TO 04N100W TO 05N115W
TO 06N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 120W
AND 127W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

WEAKENING 1019 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 27N119W WILL SHIFT S
AND DISSIPATE BY LATE SUN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN  PORTION OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3
TO 5 FT INTO SUN NIGHT. NW SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FT
WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS AROUND GUADALUPE ISLAND AND THE COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE SUN NIGHT/ EARLY MON AHEAD OF THE
WEAKENING COLD FRONT NOTED ABOVE. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY MON AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO MOVE E AND BECOME DIFFUSE ON
MON. THE ACCOMPANYING LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL PERSIST HOWEVER
WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER IMPACTING THE ENTIRE BAJA CALIFORNIA
COAST AND REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS BY LATE TUE. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER GROUP OF NW SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 8 TO 14
FT PROPAGATING ACROSS THE REGION W OF 105W THROUGH LATE FRI.

...GAP WINDS... 

EARLIER 1520 AND 1608 UTC ASCAT PASSES INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG
GAP WINDS EMERGING OUT OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND EXTENDING
WESTWARD TO ALONG 93W. THIS PULSE IS DUE TO ONGOING STRONG TO
NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN RESULTING IN
STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND NEARBY
PUERTO SANDINO. WINDS SHOULD PULSE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND AGAIN
SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. HOWEVER WINDS WILL ONLY PULSE TO
MARGINAL FORECAST CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. NE
SWELL GENERATED FROM THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL PROPAGATE WESTWARD
AND MERGE WITH NE SWELL GENERATED BY THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 

THE STRONG WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL ALSO INDUCE PULSES OF
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF
PANAMA INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE MINIMAL AND
BRIEF GAP WINDS AFTER MON. 

$$
COBB