000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022158 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT JAN 02 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE DISCUSSION WATERS EXTENDING FROM 30N132W TO 22N140W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY N OF 27N W OF 137W OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE...30 TO 35 KT INTO EARLY SUN. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO HELP TO USHER IN A NEW SET OF NW SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS REACHING CLOSE TO 20 FT TONIGHT OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY SUN AND THE FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN THROUGH SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC ITCZ IS HELPING TO FUNNEL GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASSES MISSED THE AREA...HOWEVER NWP MODELS SUGGEST 30 TO 40 KT WINDS LIKELY OCCURRED DURING THE DIURNAL PEAK IN DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO GALE FORCE THROUGH MON NIGHT...BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW GALE FORCE. SEAS HAVE PEAKED AT 16 FT THIS MORNING...THEN ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TO 9 TO 13 FT IN MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON BOTH GALE AREAS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE AXIS OF THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N94W TO 04N100W TO 05N115W TO 06N130W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 104W AND 115W...AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 137W. ...DISCUSSION... 1020 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 29N119W WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT S THROUGH LATE SUN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS MOVED INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT INTO SUN NIGHT. NW SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS AROUND GUADALUPE ISLAND AND THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE SUN NIGHT/ EARLY MON AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT NOTED ABOVE. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY MON AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE AND WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE ACCOMPANYING LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL PERSIST HOWEVER WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER IMPACTING THE ENTIRE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS BY LATE TUE. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER GROUP OF NW SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 8 TO 14 FT PROPAGATING ACROSS THE REGION W OF 105W THROUGH LATE FRI. ...GAP WINDS... 1520 AND 1608 UTC ASCAT PASSES INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS EMERGING OUT OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND EXTENDING WESTWARD TO ALONG 93W. THIS PULSE IS DUE TO ONGOING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN RESULTING IN STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND NEARBY PUERTO SANDINO. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS BEFORE PULSING AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. HOWEVER WINDS WILL ONLY PULSE TO MARGINAL FORECAST CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. NE SWELL GENERATED FROM THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL PROPAGATE WESTWARD AND MERGE WITH NE SWELL GENERATED BY THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE STRONG WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL ALSO INDUCE PULSES OF MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE MINIMAL AND BRIEF GAP WINDS AFTER MON. $$ COBB