000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021520
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JAN 02 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.   

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE DISCUSSION WATERS EXTENDING FROM
30N136W TO 24N140W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
WATERS N OF 20N THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY N OF 27N W OF 137W BY THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE...30 TO 35 KT TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUN...AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST SREF PAC/CONUS 34 KT WIND
PROBABILITY MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO HELP TO USHER
IN A NEW SET OF NW SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS REACHING CLOSE TO
20 FT TONIGHT OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY SUN AND THE FRONT WILL THEN
WEAKEN THROUGH SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC ITCZ IS HELPING TO
FUNNEL GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. OVERNIGHT
SCATTEROMETER PASSES MISSED THE AREA...HOWEVER 30 TO 40 KT WINDS
WERE LIKELY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ADDITION OF
PEAK DRAINAGE. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY MON. SEAS ARE LIKELY PEAKING AT 16 FT THIS
MORNING...THEN ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TO 9 TO 13 FT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS WINDS WILL BE CLOSER TO
35 KT VERSUS THE 40 KT EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING.

SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON BOTH GALE AREAS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N91W TO
04N100W TO 05N115W TO 05N125W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND
118W...AND ALSO WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 128W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION... 

N OF 15N E OF 120W...1019 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 28N120W
WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT S THROUGH LATE SUN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH HAS MOVED INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT INTO SUN NIGHT. NW SWELL WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS AROUND GUADALUPE
ISLAND AND THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE LATE SUN NIGHT/
EARLY MON AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT. THE SUPPORTING
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY MON AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO STALL AND
BECOME DIFFUSE AND WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE ACCOMPANYING LONG
PERIOD NW SWELL WILL PERSIST HOWEVER WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER
IMPACTING THE ENTIRE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS BY LATE TUE. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER GROUP OF
NW SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 8 TO 14 FT PROPAGATING ACROSS THE
REGION W OF 105W THROUGH LATE FRI.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS INDICATED FRESH TO
STRONG GAP WINDS EMERGING OUT OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THIS
PULSE IS DUE TO ONGOING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS IN
THE SW CARIBBEAN RESULTING IN STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND NEARBY PUERTO SANDINO. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER TODAY AS COASTAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS WEAKEN...BEFORE PULSING
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN...AND THEN AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO
EARLY MON. HOWEVER WINDS WILL ONLY PULSE TO MARGINAL FORECAST
CRITERIA SUN BEFORE DIMINISHING ONCE AGAIN LATER SUN. NE SWELL
GENERATED FROM THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL PROPAGATE WESTWARD AND
MERGE WITH NE SWELL GENERATED BY THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE
STRONG WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL ALSO INDUCE PULSES OF
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF
PANAMA INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE MINIMAL AND
BRIEF GAP WINDS AFTER MON. NW SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS
OF 8 FT WILL REACH AS FAR AS 105W BY LATE FRI.

ELSEWHERE...TRADE WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN MINIMAL ACROSS THE DEEP
TROPICS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
WEAKENED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 8 TO 9 FT SEAS CONSISTING OF
A MIX OF NW AND S SWELL COVERS AN AREA FROM 04N TO 14N W OF
115W. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN BUT NOT BEFORE
BEING OVERTAKEN BY ANOTHER GROUP OF NW SWELL. THE MERGED SWELL
WILL COVER AN AREA FROM 04N TO 20N W OF 124W BY EARLY SUN. THIS
SWELL GROUP WILL REACH AS FAR EAST AS 110W BY MID WEEK...BUT
WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY ANOTHER AREA OF NW SWELL THAT WILL
PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SEAS AS
HIGH AS 20 FT IN THE WATERS N OF 28N W OF 130W.

$$
LEWITSKY