000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020941
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC SAT JAN 02 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.   

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC ITCZ IS HELPING TO
FUNNEL GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. EARLIER
ASCAT PASSES CAPTURED THE AREA OF 30 TO 35 KT WINDS QUITE WELL
AND ALLOWED A BETTER DEFINITION OF THE INITIAL AREA OF GALES IN
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST. THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO 40 KT SINCE THAT TIME. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO 12 TO 15 FT RANGE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT...THEN SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 9 TO 12 FT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.  

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM THE N CENTRAL
PACIFIC WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N THROUGH SUNDAY.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA N OF 27N W OF 135W BY LATE SAT
WITH WINDS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE...30 TO 35 KT SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO HELP TO USHER IN A NEW SET OF
NW SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS REACHING CLOSE TO 20 FT SAT NIGHT
OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. 
 
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON BOTH GALE AREAS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

ITCZ FROM 04N90W TO 06N111W TO BEYOND 01N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 110W
AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION... 

N OF 15N E OF 120W...1020 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 29N122W
WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NW SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FT WILL
MOVE INTO THE WATERS AROUND GUADALUPE ISLAND AND THE COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN BY MONDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE AND
WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE ACCOMPANYING LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL
PERSIST HOWEVER WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER IMPACTING THE ENTIRE
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS BY LATE TUE.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER GROUP OF NW SWELL WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS 8 TO 14 FT PROPAGATING ACROSS THE REGION W OF 105W
THROUGH LATE FRI.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...AN ASCAT PASS FROM 03 UTC INDICATED 25 TO
30 KT GAP WINDS EMERGING OUT OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THIS PULSE
IS DUE TO ONGOING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN RESULTING IN STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS IN THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO AND NEARBY PUERTO SANDINO. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER
TODAY AS COASTAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS WEAKEN...BEFORE PULSING AGAIN
EARLY SUN. HOWEVER WINDS WILL ONLY PULSE TO MARGINAL FORECAST
CRITERIA SUN BEFORE DECREASING ONCE AGAIN LATER SUN. NE SWELL
GENERATED FROM THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL PROPAGATE WESTWARD AND
MERGE WITH NE SWELL GENERATED BY THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT
WITH AN AREA OF 8 FT SEAS GENERALLY FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 88W
AND 100W. THE STRONG WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL ALSO INDUCE
PULSES OF MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
ISTHMUS OF PANAMA INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING THE EVENING TO
EARLY MORNING HOURS TONIGHT AND SAT. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE MINIMAL AND BRIEF GAP WINDS AFTER MONDAY. NW
SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL REACH AS FAR AS
105W BY LATE FRI.

ELSEWHERE...TRADE WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN MINIMAL ACROSS THE DEEP
TROPICS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
WEAKENED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 8 TO 9 FT SEAS CONSISTING OF
A MIX OF NW AND S SWELL COVERS AN AREA FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN
115W AND 130W. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH SUNDAY BUT
NOT BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY ANOTHER GROUP OF NW SWELL. THE
MERGED SWELL WILL COVER AN AREA FROM 05N TO 15N WEST OF 125W BY
TONIGHT. THIS SWELL GROUP WILL REACH AS FAR EAST AS 110W BY MID
WEEK...BUT BE OVERTAKEN BY ANOTHER AREA OF NW SWELL THAT WILL
PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SEAS AS
HIGH AS 20 FT IN THE WATERS N OF 28N W OF 130W. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN