000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020339
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JAN 02 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.   

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC ITCZ IS HELPING TO
FUNNEL GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. EARLIER
ASCAT PASSES CAPTURED THE AREA OF 30 TO 35 KT WINDS QUITE WELL
AND ALLOWED A BETTER DEFINITION OF THE INITIAL AREA OF GALES IN
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST. THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO 40 KT SINCE THAT TIME. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO 12 TO 15 FT RANGE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT...THEN SUBSIDE
SLIGHTLY TO 9 TO 12 FT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.  

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY W OF THE AREA WILL SWEEP INTO THE NW
WATERS LATER TONIGHT TO ALONG 130W BY LATE SAT. DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE AREA N OF 27N W OF 135W BY LATE SAT WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO GALE FORCE...30 TO 35 KT SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO HELP TO USHER IN A NEW SET OF NW SWELLS
WITH COMBINED SEAS REACHING CLOSE TO 20 FT SAT NIGHT OVER THE
FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. 
 
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON BOTH GALE AREAS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

ITCZ FROM 04N90W TO 06N110W TO 04N125W TO BEYOND 02N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 122W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB CENTERED NEAR 29N122W EXTENDS A
RIDGE SE TO NEAR 18N110W. THERE IS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WITH MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES
PREVAILING N OF THE ITCZ TO 15N. RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES
INDICATE SEAS TO 9 FT COVERING THE AREA S OF 13N BETWEEN 115W
AND 128W WINDS IN NW AND S SWELL. SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL
SHRINK OVER THIS AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW FORECAST CRITERIA THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

GAP WINDS...STRONG TO GALE FORCE TRADES ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN
SEA ARE RESULTING IN STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO LOCALLY 11 FT RANGE. ANOTHER
EXTENSIVE PULSE OF WINDS IS EXPECTED SAT MORNING. THEREAFTER
WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 20 KT BRIEFLY LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT
BEFORE PULSING AGAIN EARLY SUN. HOWEVER WINDS WILL ONLY PULSE TO
MARGINAL FORECAST CRITERIA SUN BEFORE DECREASING ONCE AGAIN
LATER SUN. NE SWELL GENERATED FROM THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL
PROPAGATE WESTWARD AND MERGE WITH NE SWELL GENERATED BY THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT WITH AN AREA OF 8 FT SEAS GENERALLY FROM
08N TO 12N BETWEEN 88W AND 100W. 
  
THE STRONG WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL ALSO INDUCE PULSES OF
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF
PANAMA INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING THE EVENING TO EARLY
MORNING HOURS TONIGHT AND SAT. 

$$
COBB