000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011505
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JAN 01 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.   

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC ITCZ IS HELPING TO
FUNNEL GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MON. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE 10 TO 15 FT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY. 

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY W OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT INTO THE NW
WATERS LATER TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE W OF THE AREA AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT THE COLD
FRONT IS ASSOCIATED TO WILL HELP TO INCREASE WINDS TO GALE FORCE
W OF THE FRONT EARLY SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO HELP TO USHER IN
A NEW SET OF NW SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS REACHING 20 FT MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS BY EARLY SAT. 
 
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON BOTH GALE AREAS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04.5N89W TO 05N122W TO 02N135W TO BEYOND
03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N
OF ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 124W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR
33N125W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 19N110W. THERE IS A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH MAINLY MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADES PREVAILING N OF THE ITCZ TO 20N. RECENT
ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATE SEAS TO 9 FT COVERING THE AREA S OF
13N BETWEEN 115W AND 128W WINDS IN NW AND S SWELL. SEAS GREATER
THAN 8 FT WILL SHRINK OVER THIS AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

GAP WINDS...STRONG TO GALE FORCE TRADES ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN
SEA ARE RESULTING IN STRONG TO NEAR GALE NE TO E GAP WINDS
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH SEAS REACHING 11 FT. STRONG
GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH WINDS ONCE AGAIN REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE
EARLY SAT MORNING. NE SWELL GENERATED FROM THIS GAP WIND EVENT
WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND MERGE WITH NE SWELL GENERATED BY THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT WITH AN AREA OF 8 FT SEAS GENERALLY
FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 88W AND 100W. THE STRONG WINDS IN THE
CARIBBEAN WILL ALSO INDUCE PULSES OF MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
GAP WINDS ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA
DURING THE EVENING TO EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH SAT. 

$$
AL