000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010927
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JAN 01 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.   

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 03 UTC INDICATED GALE FORCE WINDS
HAVE STARTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MOVES ACROSS THE ISTHMUS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MON. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 8 TO 11 FT UNTIL THE GALE FORCE WINDS
EVENTUALLY BUILD SEAS INTO THE 10 TO 15 FT RANGE LATE TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. 

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DIVE ESE TO NEAR 31N137W
BY LATE SAT WITH W TO NW WINDS INCREASING TO 30 TO 35 KT OVER
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 240 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT OF THE GALE
CENTER. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEPICTING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH SEAS BUILDING 15 TO 20 FT IN THE
AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS BY LATE SAT. 
 
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON BOTH GALE AREAS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 05N87W TO 06N107W TO 04N112W TO 05N110W TO BEYOND
03N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED.  

...DISCUSSION... 

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A WEAK PRES PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION ANCHORED BY 1023 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NW OF THE AREA
35N126W AND WEAK TROUGHING OVER NW MEXICO. FARTHER SOUTH...7 TO
8 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 7 FT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH TODAY.
THROUGH TONIGHT...THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY AND
ALLOWING MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA AND OFF CABO CORRIENTES. THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS
THROUGH LATE SAT...ALLOWING THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH LATE
SUN. LOOKING AHEAD...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
GUADALUPE ISLAND AND THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY
MON...DELIVERING A NW SWELL TRAIN WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10
FT. SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR AND SOCORRO ISLAND BY LATE TUE. LOOKING FURTHER
AHEAD...THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY STRONG W TO NW WINDS AND SEAS 12 TO 16 FT
INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY WED NIGHT.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG TO GALE FORCE TRADES ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE RESULTING IN STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS THROUGH
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS WILL REACH THEIR
MAXIMUM EXTENT LATER THIS MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT.
HOWEVER...THE STRONG NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND LIKELY
MERGE WITH NE SWELL GENERATED BY THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT
WITH AN AREA OF 8 FT SEAS GENERALLY FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 88W
AND 100W. THE CARIBBEAN WINDS WILL ALSO INDUCE PULSES OF
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF
PANAMA INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING THE EVENING TO EARLY
MORNING HOURS THROUGH SAT.
 
ELSEWHERE...FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED ON A 0630
UTC ASCAT PASS BETWEEN THE 1023 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 35N126W AND A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT
FATHER WEST. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FORM THE CENTRAL
N PACIFIC WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N THROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING GALE CENTER EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
31N137W BY LATE SAT. THIS IS WEAKENING AND DISPLACING THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...ALLOWING ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND
FLOW FARTHER SOUTH. THE LACK OF TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IS IN TURN
LIMITING CONVECTIVE GROWTH ALONG THE ITCZ. MEANWHILE A LARGE
AREA OF WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 9 FT REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W DUE TO AN PREVIOUS PUSH
OF NW SWELL MIXED WITH SOUTHERLY SWELL. REINFORCING NW SWELL IS
STARTING TO ENTER THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N140W AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. THIS WILL OVERTAKE MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 120W
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

$$
CHRISTENSEN