000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010340 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI JAN 01 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE N TO NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD AIR MASS PUSHES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING INCREASED AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF. THESE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 8 TO 11 FT UNTIL THE GALE FORCE WINDS EVENTUALLY BUILD SEAS INTO THE 10 TO 15 FT RANGE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DIVE ESE TO NEAR 31N137W BY LATE SAT WITH W TO NW WINDS INCREASING TO 30 TO 35 KT OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 240 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT OF THE GALE CENTER. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH SEAS BUILDING 15 TO 20 FT IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS BY LATE SAT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON BOTH GALE AREAS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N87W TO 05N117W TO 04N130W TO BEYOND 03N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ...DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE MOST OF THE REGION WITH A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 35N128W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SE TO NEAR 18N117W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS GENERATING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 114W AND 123W WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA EXTENDING SW TO 20N125W. THE SYSTEM IS ADVECTING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN U.S. MEANWHILE...A SHARP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 25N135W AND IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE REGION N OF 24N W OF 137W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N136W TO 23N140W. SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL CURRENTLY FOLLOWS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER BY LATE SATURDAY THE SWELL WILL HAVE OVERTAKEN THE DISSIPATED FRONT AND EXTEND NW OF A LINE FROM 30N125W TO 20N130W TO 10N122W TO 07N140W. A NEW MORE VIGOROUS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT AND SWEEP RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND EXTEND FROM 30N130W TO 25N135W TO 20N140W BY LATE SAT. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT GENERALLY N OF 26N AND WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 12 FT AHEAD OF AND 12 TO 16 FT BEHIND THE FRONT. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT ARE S OF 02N GENERALLY BETWEEN 105W AND 133W. THIS AREA OF SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY FRI. GAP WINDS... GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA...STRONG TO GALE FORCE TRADES ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA ARE RESULTING IN STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS WILL REACH THEIR MAXIMUM EXTENT ON FRIDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT. HOWEVER...THE STRONG NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND LIKELY MERGE WITH NE SWELL GENERATED BY THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT WITH AN AREA OF 8 FT SEAS GENERALLY FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 88W AND 100W. THE CARIBBEAN WINDS WILL ALSO INDUCE PULSES OF MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING THE EVENING TO EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH SAT. $$ COBB