000 AXPZ20 KNHC 311533 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU DEC 31 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE N TO NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD AIR MASS PUSHES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING INCREASED AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF REGION. THESE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MORNING MONDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 8 TO 10 FT UNTIL THE GALE FORCE WINDS EVENTUALLY BUILD SEAS INTO THE 10 TO 15 FT RANGE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N88W TO 06N115W TO 06N133W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ...DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE MOST OF THE REGION WITH A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 35N126W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SE TO NEAR 17N112W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ COUPLED WITH MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 21N120W IS GENERATING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 116W AND 127W WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. WHILE THIS BROAD MID-LEVEL ENERGY STRETCHES FROM THE SHORTWAVE NORTHEASTWARD TO OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND NW MEXICO...THE NEXT SHARP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IMPACTING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE REGION N OF 24N W OF 137W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N138W TO 26N140W. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED AN AREA OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GENERALLY N OF 28N E OF THE FRONT TO 135W. SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL CURRENTLY FOLLOWS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER BY SATURDAY THE SWELL WILL HAVE OVERTAKEN THE WEAKENING FRONT AND EXTEND NW OF A LINE FROM 30N128W TO 08N140W. A NEW COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING PRECEDED BY STRONG SW WINDS AND SEAS RAPIDLY BUILDING TO A RANGE OF 12 TO 15 FT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH NW SWELL BUILDING THE SEAS TO NEAR 19 FT SAT NIGHT. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT ARE S OF 02N GENERALLY BETWEEN 105W AND 133W. THIS AREA OF SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY FRI. GAP WINDS... GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA...STRONG TO GALE FORCE TRADES ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA ARE RESULTING IN STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS WILL MAX ON FRIDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT. HOWEVER...THE STRONG NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND LIKELY MERGE WITH NE SWELL GENERATED BY THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT WITH AN AREA OF 8FT SEAS GENERALLY FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 93W TO 108W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA WINDS WILL ALSO INDUCE PULSES OF MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING THE EVENING TO EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH SAT. $$ HUFFMAN