000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282148
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
2205 UTC MON DEC 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.   

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N90W TO 07N110W TO 07N128W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN
90W AND 102W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 139W.

...DISCUSSION...                                               
RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST
PACIFIC WATERS THIS EVENING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING
RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING
N OF 10N W OF 110W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH AXIS ALONG 117W...HOWEVER MOST OF THE
ENERGY REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY A PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY N OF 28N E OF 123W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND FAR NW MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...THIS
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE IS REFLECTED AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE OFFSHORE OF THE LOS ANGELES CALIFORNIA AREA SW TO
30N123W. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BY 29/0600 UTC BRINGING INCREASED W TO NW WINDS N OF
29.5N ACROSS THE GULF. IT IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE NE OF THE
AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY
A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N139W EXTENDS AN AXIS SE TO
20N110W SUPPORTING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES GENERALLY
FROM 11N TO 26N W OF 123W. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY N OF 04N W OF
118W...8 TO 11 FT SWELL IS NOTED PER LATEST GUIDANCE AND UPDATED
GRID PACKAGE. BY TUESDAY...THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY INTO MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE LEVELS AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND WEAKENS WITH MIXED NE AND NW SWELL REMAINING IN
PLACE WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 8 TO 11 FT.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE QUIET. THE NEXT
PULSE OF STRONG GAP WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
INCREASE TO STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WITH SEAS BUILDING INTO A
7-8 FT RANGE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BY LATE TUE.

BEYOND 48 HOURS...AN ADDITIONAL GAP WIND PULSE IS EXPECTED TO
START WED NIGHT LEADING INTO A GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT BY FRI
NIGHT AS A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE EASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA IS RESULTING IN PULSING FRESH
TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE PULSING IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD.

$$
HUFFMAN