000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270918
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1005 UTC SUN DEC 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0845 UTC.   

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...N OF 29N...PER THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS.
THESE GALE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BETWEEN A DEEPENING LOW PRES OF 998 MB CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR DEL RIO TEXAS AND A 1045 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE U.S.
GREAT BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG WITH LOCALLY TO NEAR GALE WINDS ARE
BLOWING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. SEAS HAVE REACHED THE
MAX OF 11 FT AND ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATER THIS MORNING...BUT WIND GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE MAY STILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND
DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR LAS TRES MARIAS ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY
DIMINISHING TO BELOW STRONG TONIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 5N77W TO 3N82W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 5N86W ALONG 6N104W 7N114W 5N131W TO 2N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF SURFACE
TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N TO 10N
BETWEEN 118W AND 124W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 110W AND 118W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 123W AND 127W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED STRONG NW WINDS OFF THE W
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS ALONG WITH SOME
SHIP OBSERVATIONS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF SEAS UP TO 12 FT.
SEAS ARE THE RESULT OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA
OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. THE STRONG WINDS ARE DUE THE TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1030 MB HIGH PRES AREA OFF THE COAST OF
S/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING LOW PRES
AREA OVER MEXICO/TEXAS. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TODAY AS THE HIGH PRES MOVES SE AND WEAKENS AND THE LOW PRES
MOVES FARTHER EAST. 

ELSEWHERE...THE ABOVE MENTIONED 1030 MB HIGH PRES IS LOCATED
NEAR 33N130W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE ACROSS THE FORECAST
WATERS TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
N OF 05N W OF 110W BASED ON LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASSES. A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W THROUGH
TODAY. THE AREA OF THE TRADES WILL DECREASE ON MON...WITH FRESH
TO STRONG NE-E WINDS AFFECTING MAINLY THE WATERS FROM 08N TO 27N
W OF 130W. ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL REACH THE
FAR NW CORNER BY TONIGHT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 11 FT ACROSS THE NW
CORNER BY MON AFTERNOON. 

STRONG TO GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW
CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STRONG GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH NE TO E WINDS EXTENDING SW AND DOWNWIND TO
90W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER
PULSE OF STRONG NE TO E WINDS ON SUN AND MON NIGHTS.

AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...EXPECT STRONG FUNNELING WINDS INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BY MON EVENING THEN SPREADING DOWNWIND MON NIGHT.
THIS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 9 FT MON NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A SHORT
LIVED EVENT AS THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RETREAT W AS
A WARM FRONT ON TUE NIGHT.  
   
$$
PAW