000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270339
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                        
0405 UTC SUN DEC 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.   

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTH GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...N OF 29N...PER THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS.
THESE GALE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRES
GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
BETWEEN A DEEPENING LOW PRES OF 994 MB CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR
THE TEXAS/CHIHUHUA MEXICO BORDER AND A 1041 MB HIGH PRES OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE ARE
BLOWING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS
TO A MAX OF 11 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. THEN...WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATER TONIGHT...BUT WIND
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE MAY STILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR LAS TRES MARIAS ISLANDS ON SUN.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 04N88W. THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES FROM 04N88W TO 05N103W TO 07N120W TO 06N130W TO BEYOND
03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
05N TO 08N BETWEEN 109W AND 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED STRONG NW WINDS OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS ALONG WITH SOME
SHIP OBSERVATIONS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF SEAS UP TO 13-14 FT.
SEAS ARE THE RESULT OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA
OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. THE STRONG WINDS ARE DUE THE TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1030 MB HIGH PRES AREA OFF THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING LOW PRES
AREA. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SUN AS THE HIGH
PRES MOVES SW AND WEAKENS AND THE LOW PRES MOVES FARTHER EAST.

ELSEWHERE...THE ABOVE MENTIONED 1030 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR
35N130W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO
NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS N OF 08N
W OF 120W TO A LINE FROM 30N125W TO 25N140W BASED ON LATEST
SCATTEROMETER PASSES. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE WATERS W OF 110W THROUGH SUN. THE AERIAL EXTENT OF THE
TRADES WILL DECREASE ON MON...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS
AFFECTING MAINLY THE WATERS FROM 08N TO 25N W OF 125W. ANOTHER
SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL REACH THE FAR NW CORNER BY SUN
NIGHT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 12 FT ACROSS THE NW CORNER BY MON
AFTERNOON. 

STRONG TO GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW
CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STRONG GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE GULF OF FONSECA
WITH NE-E WINDS OF 20-30 KT EXTENDING SW AND DOWNWIND TO 90W. A
SHIP CALL SIGN PBDA APPROACHING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REPORTED E
WIND OF 30 KT AND SEAS OF 7 FT AT 0000 UTC. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DIMINISH BY SUN EVENING WITH ANOTHER PULSE OF 20-25 KT NE-E
WINDS BY SUN NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MOST RECENT
ASCAT PASS INDICATED N WINDS OF 15-20 KT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF
TO NEAR 04N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W. 

AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...EXPECT
FUNNELING WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY MON NIGHT.
MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT AND
BUILDING SEAS OF 8-9 FT BY MON NIGHT.
   
$$
GR