000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261603 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT DEC 26 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 26/1800 UTC FOR THE NORTH GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH SAT EVENING. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS DEEP LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO AND W TEXAS...AND IS SUPPORTING STRONG NW WINDS N OF 30N TONIGHT THEN INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE N OF 28N WITH STRONG WINDS EXPANDING S ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS TO A MAX OF 11 FT SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY SAT NIGHT...BUT WITH WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE MAY STILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 04N88W. THE ITCZ FROM 05N95W TO 06N125W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM N OF ITCZ TO 08N BETWEEN 108W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND 128W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND 118W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E TO 120W...SEVERAL SHIP OBSERVATIONS EARLIER THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 05 UTC INDICATED STRONG NW WINDS WITH SEAS 10 TO 12 FT OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF CABO SAN LAZARO. THE STRONG WINDS ARE DUE THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1033 MB HIGH PRES AREA OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND A DEEP 1000 MB LOW PRES AREA NEAR EL PASO TEXAS. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED SEAS ARE JOINED BY LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE...WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 13 FT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND THE LOW PRES MOVES FARTHER EAST. HOWEVER...STRONG NE GAP WINDS WILL EMERGE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NEAR LOWER LYING TERRAIN ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG TO GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STRONG GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE GULF OF FONSECA WITH NEAR GALE FORCE NE TO E WINDS EXTENDING SW AND DOWNWIND TO 90W. THE RESULTANT NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SW RESULTING IN 8-11 FT COMBINED SEAS AS FAR DOWNSTREAM AS 11N92W THIS EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SUN EVENING. MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA AS WELL...PROVIDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO ENHANCE SCATTERED OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...A 1033 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 38N131W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS...FROM 08N TO 27N W OF 120W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES CONTINUE TO CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. THE HIGH PRES WILL MOVE SE TO A POSITION NEAR 34N131W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST JUST N OF OF 30N. AS A RESULT...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W TODAY SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. $$ CHRISTENSEN