000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251005
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC FRI DEC 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0915 UTC.   

...SPECIAL FEATURES...GALE-FORCE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL START
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...ON SATURDAY AROUND
NOONTIME. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 20 TO 30
KNOT WINDS WILL DEVELOP...FIRST FROM 29N NORTHWARD. THE GALE-
FORCE WINDS WILL START ABOUT 12 HOURS LATER...FROM 28N
NORTHWARD. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 10 FEET
FROM 36 HOURS TO 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN GALE-FORCE AFTER
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MORNING. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

SURFACE TROUGH FROM 06N77W TO 05N87W. ITCZ FROM 06N93W TO
08N120W TO 06N132W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 240 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND 117W...AND
WITHIN 240 NM S OF ITCZ W OF 125W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE AREA...FROM
30N124W TO 32N134W. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE FAR N WATERS EARLY ON FRI BECOMING
DIFFUSE LATER ON FRI. AN AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT NW WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 TO 13 FT WILL DEVELOP FROM 23N NORTHWARD
FROM 120W EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A SECOND AREA OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS...FROM THE NORTHEAST...AND SEA
HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 11 FT...WILL EXIST FROM 06N TO 27N
FROM 120W WESTWARD...DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 8 TO 11 FT SEA
HEIGHTS ALSO WILL COVER A LARGE PART OF THE REST OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WATERS.

GAP WINDS...

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRONG NE-E GAP
WIND EVENT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THE GULF OF FONSECA
TONIGHT INTO FRI COVERING THE WATERS FROM 9.5N TO 13N E OF 91W
BY EARLY FRI MORNING. THE RESULTANT NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SW
RESULTING IN 8-10 FT COMBINED SEAS AS FAR DOWNSTREAM AS 10N93W
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BY FRI
EVENING BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. BY THEN...
EXPECT NE-E WINDS OF 20-30 KT AND BUILDING SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT
FROM 09.5N TO 13N E OF 92W.
   
$$
MT