000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242157 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU DEC 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUPPORTING NW 20-25 KT WINDS TO THE N OF 30N ON FRI NIGHT. BY SAT AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WINDS ACROSS THE GULF N OF 25N...WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 29N. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 11-12 FT WITH THESE STRONG WINDS BY SAT EVENING WHEN NW WINDS OF 30-35 KT ARE EXPECTED TO BLOW ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 26N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 05N82W TO 07N88W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N88W TO 07N100W TO 07.5N116 TO 05N130W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 102W AND 108W...FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 112W AND 115W...AND FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 123W AND 134W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS W OF 136W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1031 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 41N142W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF TRADE WINDS...PARTICULARLY FROM 06N TO 26N W OF 130W...AND FROM 06N TO 21N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. IN ADDITION...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SAME RIDGE AND A TROUGH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS ALSO PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS JUST OFF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE...MAINLY N OF 26N E OF 125W AS NOTED PER THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS. AN EARLIER ALTIMETER PASS ALSO INDICATED SEAS IN THE 9-13 FT RANGE IN THIS AREA...LIKELY DUE TO LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. THE HIGH PRES WILL MOVE SE TO A POSITION NEAR 39N135W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS WHILE STRENGTHENING. AS A RESULT...THE THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN FRI EVENING INTO SAT ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICS...PRODUCING AN INCREASE IN THE AREA OF NW WINDS JUST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INCREASING ALSO THE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. COMBINED SEAS OF 8-13 FT RESULTING FROM NW SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES DOMINATE MOST OF THE WATERS N OF THE EQUATOR AND W OF 110W...HIGHEST OVER THE NE WATERS N OF 26N E OF 125W AND FROM 06N TO 09N W OF 130W. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NW WATERS LATE SUN INTO MON BUILDING SEAS UP TO 12-13 FT ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION BUT GENERALLY SUBSIDING TO 10-12 FT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE FAR N WATERS EARLY ON FRI BECOMING DIFFUSE LATER ON FRI. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONG NE-E GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THE GULF OF FONSECA TONIGHT INTO FRI COVERING THE WATERS FROM 9.5N TO 13N E OF 91W BY EARLY FRI MORNING. THE RESULTANT NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SW RESULTING IN 8-10 FT COMBINED SEAS AS FAR DOWNSTREAM AS 10N93W DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BY FRI EVENING BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. EXPECT NE-E WINDS OF 20-30 KT AND BUILDING SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT FROM 09.5N TO 13N E OF 92W. GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20 KT DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. $$ GR