000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240947
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC THU DEC 24 2015 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.               
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM
06N77W TO 04N89W TO 05N99W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE
THAT AN ITCZ FORMS. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES W THROUGH 05N99W TO
07N113W TO 08N125W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF 11N127W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 75 NM OF 08N102W...WITHIN 150
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.5N112W TO 09N120W...AND WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05.5N115.5W TO 07N131W TO
05N140W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 25N120W TO
16N106W. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING NW WINDS OF 20-30
KT ACROSS THE AREA FROM 26-32N E OF 120W ...WITH SEAS OF 9-16
FT. MODERATE NW-N WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-8 FT ARE OBSERVED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 15N BETWEEN 110-120W. THE
GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO BRIEFLY RELAX FROM THE N TONIGHT...THEN
WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN ON FRI EVENING INTO SAT WITH 20-30 KT
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AGAIN N OF 24N E OF 120W...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF 10-15 FT COMBINED SEAS. THE GRADIENT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUPPORTING NW 20-25 KT
WINDS TO THE N OF 30N ON FRI NIGHT...INCREASING TO 20-30 KT
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF N OF 25.5 LATE SAT AS MINIMAL GALE FORCE
WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 30N AND SEAS BUILD TO
AS HIGH AS 12 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON SUN WITH N-NE 20 TO
25 KT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PAC WATERS FROM 18-24N E OF 120W.
NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
BEGINNING ON MON EVENING.
 
S OF 15N E OF 110W...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE-E WINDS WILL
CONTINUE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 12N86.5W TO 12N89W THROUGH
MID MORNING THEN DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT. STRONG NE-E WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN BEGINNING TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE SAT
NIGHT WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N86.5W TO
11N90W. THE RESULTANT NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE WSW RESULTING IN 7-
10 FT COMBINED SEAS AS FAR DOWNSTREAM AS 10.5N92W DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EACH
NIGHT BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE
FROM 08.5N79.5W TO 06N79.5W...TO INCLUDE THE W GULF OF PANAMA. 

ELSEWHERE...A RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM NEAR 30N128W TO NEAR
15N105W FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE
TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS
AND THE ITCZ THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT REACHES NEAR
30N140W LATE SAT NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A 10-15 KT SW-W-NW-N WIND
SHIFT...BUT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BATCH OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
RESULTING IN 8-14 FT POST-FRONTAL COMBINED SEAS ACROSS THE FAR
NW PORTION BUT GENERALLY SUBSIDING TO 10-12 FT BY LATE MON AS 
THE FRONT WASHES OUT ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
   
$$
NELSON