000 AXPZ20 KNHC 192205 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI DEC 18 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AFTER ALMOST 24 HOURS OF STORM FORCE GAP WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF...WINDS HAVE STARTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE COOL AND DRY MASS OF AIR OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MODIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. STRONG GALES WILL PERSIST HOWEVER ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS...DIMINISHING TO BELOW GALE FORCE BY LATE SUNDAY. AN ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASS FROM AROUND 17 UTC INDICATED SEAS TO 17 FT NEAR 12N96W...IN THE DOWNSTREAM PLUME OF STRONG GAP WINDS. SEAS TO 20 FT ARE LIKELY NEAR 14N96W...CLOSER TO THE STRONGER FLOW NEAR COAST BUT WITH A FAR ENOUGH FETCH OFFSHORE FOR SEAS TO BUILD FULLY. THE PERSISTENT AND STRONG GAP WINDS HAVE PUSHED AS FAR WEST AS 105W...WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT REACHING AS FAR WEST AS CLIPPERTON ISLAND NEAR 10N109W BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE PLUME OF SHORT PERIOD NE SEAS GENERATED FROM THE STRONG GAP WINDS IS MIXING WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL STILL PROPAGATING THROUGH THE AREA GENERALLY SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 92W AND 105W. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE MON/EARLY TUE. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING ANY STRONG GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES FROM 06N77W TO 07N85W TO 06N92W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N92W TO 06N120W TO 02N130W TO BEYOND 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 07N E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 125W...AND BETWEEN 135W AND 138W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 120W...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CURRENTLY...SUPPORTING THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ABOUT 210 NM NW OF GUADALUPE ISLAND. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY EARLY SUNDAY...THEN STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER ENERGY LIFTS NE OF THE REGION. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL ANOTHER ROUND OF LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS TO 9 FT COVERING THE AREA WEST OF 110W INCLUDING THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS BY LATE MON. LOOKING AHEAD...THE SWELL WILL START TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT THROUGH MID WEEK...JUST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. STRONG NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH 8 TO 11 FT SEAS IMPACTING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE COAST THROUGH WED. S OF 15N E OF 110W...BUILDING HIGH PRES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN ATLC WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE GAPS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EPAC REGION ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THE GULF OF FONSECA BY EARLY SUN MORNING. EXPECT NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT AND SEAS OF 8-11 FT EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM OF BOTH GULFS TO NEAR 09N92W. IN ADDITION TO THE GAP WINDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACTIVE MAINLY OVERNIGHT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES AND OBSERVATIONS FROM VARIOUS TOGA BUOYS INDICATE FRESH TRADES...BUT NOTHING OVER 25 KT CURRENTLY IN THE TROPICS FROM 05N TO 20N W OF 120W. THE TRADE WINDS FLOW WILL INCREASE HOWEVER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 13 FT BY SUNDAY OVER THIS REGION DUE IN PART TO THE NE TRADE WINDS BUT ALSO INCLUDING A NEW ROUND OF LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL IN THE REGION. LOOKING AHEAD...LITTLE CHANGE INTO MID WEEK WITH TRADES DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY BY LATE IN THE WEEK. $$ CHRISTENSEN