000 AXPZ20 KNHC 132150 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN DEC 13 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A WEAK TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N84W TO 07N93W TO 12N104W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 14N107W TO 09N115W TO 07N125W TO 03N131W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 03N131W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 02N-07N E OF 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS S OF 04N BETWEEN 90W- 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 116W-130W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1035 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS ANALYZED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 39N143W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS TO THE S IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS DRIVING A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS OVER WATERS W OF 120W ACCORDING TO RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BUILD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE E BEHIND A NEW COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR N WATERS ALONG 32N BETWEEN 132W-139W. THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS...EXCEPT NW WINDS E OF 120W...AS IT EXTENDS FROM 30N112W TO 25N118W TO 24N132W TO 27N140W THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS...ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT...WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON TUE AS THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 26N109W TO 20N117W TO 18N127W TO 20N140W. LARGE NW SWELL FROM A PREVIOUS COLD FRONT IS SUBSIDING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL...WITH PERIODS IN THE 18-20 SECOND RANGE AND 4-6 FT SEAS...WILL REACH THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS MON. THE HIGHEST SEAS OF 11-14 FT ARE CONFINED N OF 18N E OF 121W TO A LINE FROM 18N109W AND 30N119W. MARINE INTERESTS ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND NEARBY ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION. THE NEW FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND NW SWELL TO THE AREA...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12-16 FT BETWEEN GUADELOUPE ISLAND AND BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY MON EVENING. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE LAST GAPS OF FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT RECENTLY DISSIPATED S OF THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA CAN BE FOUND OVER THE GULF AND PACIFIC WATERS ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 108.5W AND 111W. THE 2000 UTC OBSERVATION AT SAN JOSE DEL CABO SHOWED 19 KT N-NW WINDS. WINDS SHOULD FINALLY DIMINISH BELOW 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF BY SUNRISE MON...WITH WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO 20-30 KT N OF 29N AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN MON...WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT. $$ SCHAUER