000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131523
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1605 UTC SUN DEC 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.               
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N85W TO 07N90W TO 11.5N101W. A
SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N106W TO 07.5N118W TO 07.5N121W
TO03N133W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N133W TO BEYOND 02N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED S OF THE
TROUGH TO 02N BETWEEN 92W AND 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM S AND 120 NM N OF THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 115W AND 128W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 128W
AND 133W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1029 MB CENTERED NEAR 31N138W EXTENDS A RIDGE
SE TO NEAR 21N115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND SURFACE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE IS MAINTAINING
A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FROM 10N TO 22N W OF 130W
AND FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
MEXICO IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FROM 20N TO 25N AND
E OF 110W INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. VERY LARGE
NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA WATERS
AND IS PRODUCING SEAS OF 12 TO 16 FT OVER THE WATERS N OF 16N
AND E OF 130W. MARINE INTERESTS ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND NEARBY ISLANDS...SHOULD
EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS LARGE NW
SWELL...WITH PERIODS IN THE 18-20 SECONDS RANGE...IS CURRENTLY
PASSING FROM JUST E OF ACAPULCO MEXICO TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 123W
AND IS FORECAST TO REACH THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS MON MORNING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER N OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY. THIS
WILL DECREASE THE COVERAGE OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS. THE
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENABLE A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT MONDAY. THIS WILL
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE COVERAGE OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE
FORECAST WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A FRESH SET OF NW
SWELLS INTO THE AREA...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO THE 12-
17 FT RANGE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE LATE
MON. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
20 KT OR LESS TODAY AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MENTIONED ABOVE
WEAKENS AND THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF MONDAY MORNING AND
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE N
PORTION OF THE GULF BY MON MORNING. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT LATE MON NIGHT.

$$
AL