000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122150
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
2205 UTC SAT DEC 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.               
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

A WEAK TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED  FROM 09N83W TO LOW PRESSURE
NEAR 08N100W 1008 MB TO 10N107W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 16N109W TO
LOW PRESSURE NEAR 13N112W 1009 MB 06N120W TO 05N133W. THE ITCZ
AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N133W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE AXIS AND THE COAST BETWEEN
80W AND 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WAS WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 520 NM SE QUADRANT OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR 08N100W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 660 NM E QUADRANT AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300
NM SE QUADRANT OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 13N112W. SCATTERED MODERATE
WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS W OF 119W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED CENTERED NEAR 31N137W WHILE A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR 27N109W TO 21N114W
TO 17N130W THEN DISSIPATING TO 17N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SW
UNITED STATES IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS OVER
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS THE WATERS OFF THE COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A LARGE AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF THE TROUGH
AND W OF 120W. VERY LARGE NW SWELL IS PRODUCE SEAS TO 19 FT OVER
THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE LARGE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND IMPACT COASTAL ZONES OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA. MARINE INTERESTS ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND NEARBY
ISLANDS...SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
SWELL...WITH PERIODS IN THE 18-20 SECONDS RANGE...SHOULD REACH
CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO THIS EVENING AND REACH THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS MON.

THE LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS
IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE SUN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER N OF THE AREA WEAKENS. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE N WATERS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN
ANOTHER ROUND TO 20-25 KT WINDS OVER N WATERS AS WELL AS IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. IT WILL ALSO BRING A NEW ROUND OF NW
SWELL...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO THE 12-17 FT RANGE OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE LATE MON.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MOUTH OF THE GULF
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND LOOSENS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT. THE NEXT
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF ON MONDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS.

$$
AL/SCHAUER