000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111120 AAA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1120 UTC FRI DEC 11 2015 UPDATED CONVECTION UNDER ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND WITH LOW UNDER DISCUSSION SECTION TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT IDENTIFIABLE. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 06N94W TO 07N105W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N105W TO 10N114W AND FROM 10N117W TO 05N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS W OF 134W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 94W-97W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 122W-127W. A TROUGH IS ALONG 05N E OF 85W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF IT. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LOW REMAINS CUT OFF WEST OF CLARION ISLAND NEAR 18N121W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH ON THE E SIDE OF THE LOW IS SUPPORTING AREAS OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED 115W FROM 08N-13N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE TROUGH. THE 0430 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN AREA OF CONVECTION E OF THE TROUGH. LATEST NWP MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE TROUGH DEVELOPINGH TO A WEAK LOW NEAR 11N118W TODAY...WITH GENERALLY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH RESPECT TO FUTURE MOTION OF THE LOW. THE NAVGEM MOVES IT SLOWLY TO THE NE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE UKMET KEEPS IT ABOUT STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DRIFTING IT TO THE NE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH TRACKING THE LOW NE TOWARDS MEXICO AND SSW OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY EARLY SAT EVENING WITH THE GFS BEING A SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN ANY EVENT...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE AS IT TRACKS TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE UPPER LOW PHASING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL JET. BY EARLY SAT EVENING...IT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 15N110W WITH WEAKER WINDS IN THE FRESH BREEZE RANGE. AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE BEING USHERED IN BY THE JET STREAM MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY WILL COMBINE WITH THAT LEFT OVER FROM THE LOW AND ADDED TO THAT WHICH IS PRESENTLY ADVECTING FROM THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC REGION NEWD TO OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SW TO 32N120W TO 28N128W AND TO 25N140W WILL MOVE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN GULF AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH SAT BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FRI INTO SAT OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THIS NEW BATCH OF SWELL WILL REACH THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TODAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 12-18 FT. INTERESTS PRIMARILY ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND NEARBY ISLANDS SHOULD BE ADVISED OF THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS SURF AS THE SWELL REACHES THE SHORE. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL...WITH PERIODS IN THE 18-20 SECONDS RANGE...WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EARLY SAT AND CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO BY SAT EVENING. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 30N140W TO 24N125W TO NEAR 19N115W CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IS NOTED BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ FROM 08N-20N W OF 133W PER THE 0610 UTC ASCAT PASS...A SHIP OBSERVATION FROM A SHIP NEAR 15N140W AT 0630 UTC. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND N TO NEAR 24N TONIGHT AS A BROAD AREA OF NEW AND STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. NW SWELL COVERING THE REGION WILL BE REINFORCED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH HIGHEST SEAS OF 12-18 FT REMAINING N OF 20N. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SW AND S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH TO THE SW OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT COUPLED WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FRESH TO STRONG NE BREEZE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 87W-88W PRIMARILY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TODAY AND ON SAT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AS DESCRIBED EARLIER IN THE THE DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE PRIMARILY FROM THE NW. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING...AND QUICKLY SPREAD AS FAR S AS 27N OVERNIGHT. WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY BE CLOSE TO GALE FORCE. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE FROM N TO S BY SAT AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. $$ AGUIRRE