000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102200
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                        
2205 UTC THU DEC 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.               
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 06N104W TO 07N112W TO 06N130W TO
06N130W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120
NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 137W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WAS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 129W-137W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LOW REMAINS CUT OFF WEST OF CLARION ISLAND NEAR
19N119W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE JET ON
THE E SIDE OF THE LOW IS SUPPORTING AREAS OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS CURRENTLY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
HAS FORMED FROM 14N112W TO 07N114W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 360 NM W OF THE TROUGH FROM 08N-12N. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH BECOMING A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM
TOMORROW...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN 150 NM
N QUADRANT...GENERALLY SOUTH OF CLARION ISLAND. SEAS WILL BE 8
TO 10 FT HERE IN PRIMARILY NW SWELL. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED
TO PHASE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD
WEAKEN THE LOW PRES SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE. 

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA EARLY FRI...THEN WEAKEN AND
EVENTUALLY STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH EARLY SAT BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE. FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FRI INTO SAT OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE AND THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...ADDING TO EXISTING NW SWELL STILL RESPONSIBLE FOR SEAS
TO 8 FT NEAR GUADALUPE ISLAND. THE NEW ROUND OF SWELL WILL REACH
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY LATE FRI...WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS 12 TO 18 FT. INTERESTS ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
COAST AND GUADALUPE ISLAND SHOULD BE ADVISED OF THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAZARDOUS SURF AS THE SWELL REACHES THE SHORE. THE SWELL
WILL REACH AS FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST AS 100W BY LATE SAT. 

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE
FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N THROUGH EARLY
FRI. AN AREA FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WAS BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND THE ITCZ FROM 06N-11N W OF 134W ACCORDING TO RECENT ASCAT
PASSES. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND N TO 22N OVER THE
WEEKEND AT NEW HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. NW SWELL
COVERING THE REGION WILL BE REINFORCED WITH A NEW ROUND OF NW
SWELL ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WITH HIGHEST SEAS OF 12 TO 18 FT
REMAINING NORTH OF 20N.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH GAP WINDS WERE NOTED IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THIS HAS LIKELY SINCE
DIMINISHED...EXPECT BRIEF PULSES OF FRESH GAP WINDS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF NIGHTS. FARTHER WEST...A LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8 TO 10 FT
BETWEEN 95W-126W IN MIXED NW AND SW SWELL WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8
FT THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN/SCHAUER