000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100324
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC THU DEC 10 2015 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.               
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 10N73W WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING WSW ACROSS THE TROPICAL EPAC FROM
08N78W TO 06N99W. ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM N AND WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
 
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ FORMS NEAR 06N100W AND
EXTENDS NW TO 07N112W...THEN TURNS SW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH
AT 05N130W...THEN CONTINUES W TO BEYOND 06N140W. THE EMBEDDED
TROUGH EXTENDS N TO S FROM 10N128W TO 05N130W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM N AND
WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED AT 29N123W AND IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT SW OVER THE 24 HOURS. THE HIGH IS BLOCKING THE ADVANCE OF
FRONT CURRENTLY STALLED NEAR 33N140W. A COLD FRONT IS NOTED
FURTHER NW NEAR 34N144W AND WILL OVERTAKE THE STATIONARY FRONT
LATE TONIGHT WITH THE MERGED BOUNDARY REACHING FROM 32N132W TO
29N140W EARLY THU. THE MERGED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LOSE IDENTITY
BY LATE THU...HOWEVER THE FRONT IS ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE LONG
PERIOD NW SWELL. THE LEADING EDGE OF A BATCH OF LONG PERIOD NW
SWELL...IN THE FORM OF 12-18 FT SEAS...IS CURRENTLY ALONG A
POSITION FROM 32N137W TO 28N140W AND WILL SHIFT E TO A POSITION
FROM 32N127W TO 26N137W TO 18N140W ON THU AND FROM 30N116W TO
16N140W ON FRI. BY THEN THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT NW 20-25 KT
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N E OF 118W TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF
BAJA WITH NE TRADES INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE TROPICS
FROM 15-23N W OF 130W. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS MIXING WITH CROSS
EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT
ACROSS THE EPAC GENERALLY TO THE W OF 100W.  
 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT N TO NE 20-25 KT PULSES THROUGH MID
MORNING ON THU. THE NEXT EVENT WILL BEGIN ON SUN NIGHT.
 
$$
NELSON