000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082202
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
2205 UTC TUE DEC 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.               
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO SUPPORTING GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS. A PAIR OF ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES AROUND 16 UTC
INDICATE THAT THE EVENT IS WEAKENING WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 35
KT. COASTAL OBSERVATIONS FROM SALINA CRUZ MEXICO AT 21 UTC HAVE
ALSO DROPPED TO 15 KT. THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS EVENT HAS
GENERATED A LONG PLUME OF 12 TO 15 FT SEAS...WITH SHIP DIXP2
INDICATING 12 FT SEAS AT 21 UTC. SEAS TO AT LEAST 8 FT REACH AS
FAR AS 110W AND MIXING WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RELAX LATER THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN TO 20 KT BY THURSDAY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

A WEAK MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 05N97W. ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 05N97W TO 04N115W TO 05N134W.  ITCZ RESUMES FROM
03N136W TO 02N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM
03N TO 07N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS W OF 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N W OF 120W...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AS HIGH AS 13 FT OFF GUADALUPE ISLAND TODAY
AND SEAS TO TO 9 FT REACHING THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS BY
TONIGHT AND THE AREA BETWEEN LOS CABOS AND CABO CORRIENTES SOUTH
OF THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY EARLY WED. THE
SWELL WILL SUBSIDE TO 8 TO 9 FT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THU.
LOOKING AHEAD... GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES
AND NW MEXICO FRI INTO SAT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION BRINGING STRONG NW WINDS TO THE WEST COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FRI AND SAT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF NW SWELL.

S OF 15N W OF 110W...STRONG GAP WINDS CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH
GULF OF PAPAGAYO MAINLY DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE AID OF
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL OCCASIONALLY BUILD TO 8 FT
DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS. FARTHER WEST...RECENT
ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA CONFIRM A LARGE AREA OF SEAS OF 8 TO 12
FT S OF 14N W OF 90W CONSISTENTING OF NE SWELL RELATED TO THE
TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT MIXED WITH LONGER PERIOD COMPONENTS OF NW
AND SW SWELL. THE NE COMPONENT WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE NEXT
48 HOURS WITH THE NW SWELL BECOMING DOMINANT. MEANWHILE MAINLY
OVERNIGHT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTS OFF COLOMBIA.

ELSEWHERE...A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 31N133W.
RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA ALONG WITH TOGA BUOY OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS IN THE DEEP
TROPICS...ENHANCED IN PART BY A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 08N134W TO
02N135W. THE TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ALONG
WITH GOOD UPPER EXHAUST ON THE SOUTHERN END OF A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH IS ALLOWING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ROUGHLY S OF
10N W OF 120W. MEANWHILE A LARGE AREA OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT COVERS MOST OF THE REGION. RECENT
ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES SHOWED 12-15 FT SEAS W OF 120W. WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN/LANDSEA