000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080325 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE DEC 08 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS. A SHIP LOCATED NEAR 14N95W HAS RECENTLY BEEN REPORTING 30- 40 KT WINDS. THE LATEST TAFB-NWPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEAS UP TO 20 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY RELAX ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE BY WED MORNING...THEN TO 20-25 KT BY WED AFTERNOON. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... NO MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS PRESENT. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 07N77W TO 04N86W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N88W TO 04N106W TO 06N121W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W...AND ALSO FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 98W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM NW OF A LINE FROM 19N107W TO 12N125W WHERE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS RIDING UP ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN WATERS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...EARLIER ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SPILLING OUT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ENTRANCE...BUT CONDITIONS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED EARLY THIS EVENING. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE AIDE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL OCCASIONALLY BUILD TO 8 FT DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS. A NEARLY STATIONARY 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS ANALYZED NEAR 30N133W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 17N111W. A PAIR OF WEAK TROUGHS AND LOWS ARE ANALYZED TO THE S-SW IN THE DEEP TROPICS...ONE TROUGH REACHES FROM 10N127W TO LOW PRES NEAR 06N131W TO 03N133W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 127W AND 133W. THE SECOND EXTENDS FROM 09N138W TO LOW PRES NEAR 04N138W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 03N TO 08N W OF 137W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND TROUGHS IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADES IN THE W CENTRAL WATERS. THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT W THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS ALLOWING FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX SLIGHTLY AND THUS THE STRONGER TRADES WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE. A LARGE AREA OF MAINLY LONG PERIOD NW SWELL COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF 100W WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO 100W. SEVERAL ALTIMETER PASSES SHOWED SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 16 FT IN THE N CENTRAL WATERS. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...HOWEVER STILL EXPECT SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 100W BY WED AFTERNOON. $$ LEWITSKY