000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072153
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
2205 UTC MON DEC 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.               
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING GALE TO STRONG GALE
FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS. A SHIP LOCATED NEAR 14N96.5W RECENTLY
REPORTED 37 KT WINDS AND AN EARLIER WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASS
WHICH CLIPPED THE AREA SHOWED 40 KT WINDS. A RECENT JASON-2
ALTIMETER PASS WENT RIGHT OVER THE AREA AND SAMPLED SEAS UP TO
16 FT WHILE THE LATEST TAFB-NWPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEAS UP TO 20 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY RELAX ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE BY WED MORNING...THEN TO 20-25 KT
BY WED AFTERNOON.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

NO MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS PRESENT. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM
07N77W TO 04N85W TO 04N91W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N90W TO
05N100W TO 04N110W TO 05N123W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 81W AND 85W...AND WITHIN 75
NM S OF THE TROUGH E OF 90W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER DATA
CONTINUED TO SHOW FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW-N WINDS IN THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA S OF 28.5N SPILLING OUT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
ENTRANCE. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE U.S. GREAT BASIN REGION AND THROUGH JUST INLAND OVER NW
MEXICO RELAXES.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...LATE MORNING ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED
A RELATIVELY WIDE SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO WHILE A SHIP LOCATED NEAR 09N89.5W RECENTLY REPORTED
19 KT WINDS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG
LEVELS MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE AIDE OF
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL OCCASIONALLY BUILD TO 8 FT
DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS.

A NEARLY STATIONARY 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS ANALYZED
NEAR 29N135W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 18N112W. A
PAIR OF WEAK TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED TO THE S-SW IN THE DEEP
TROPICS...ONE WITH AXIS FROM 09N127W TO 03N129W...AND THE SECOND
FROM 08N137W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 09N W OF 129W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND TROUGHS IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADES WITHIN 420 NM NW OF
A LINE FROM 14N120W TO 06N140W. THE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO
SHIFT W THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS ALLOWING FOR THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO RELAX SLIGHTLY AND THUS THE STRONGER TRADES WILL
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN TROUGH
TONIGHT INTO TUE WHILE APPROACHING OR CROSSING 140W ON TUE.

A LARGE AREA OF MAINLY LONG PERIOD NW SWELL COVERS THE MAJORITY
OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF 100W WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF SEAS
OF 8 FT OR GREATER EXTENDING FROM 30N115W TO 20N123W TO 14N102W
TO 00N102W. SEVERAL ALTIMETER PASSES SHOWED SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS UP TO 16 FT IN THE N CENTRAL WATERS. SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...HOWEVER STILL EXPECT SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER ACROSS THE
WATERS W OF 100W BY WED AFTERNOON.

$$
LEWITSKY