000 AXPZ20 KNHC 062149 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN DEC 06 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...30-40 KT GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS...SEAS TO 18 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY ON MON THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SUPPORTING MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS SUNRISE TUE MORNING. A 30 KT MAXIMUM IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF TUE THROUGH SUNRISE ON WED. ONLY 25 KT EXPECTED DURING MAXIMUM DRAINAGE ON WED NIGHT AND ONLY 20 KT ON THU NIGHT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED OVER THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74.5W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE COLOMBIA AND PANAMA BORDER AND CONTINUING SW OVER THE TROPICAL EPAC FROM 08N77W TO 06N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ENHANCED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N77W TO 05N88W. SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ FORMS NEAR 05N88W AND EXTENDS WSW TO 03N125W...THEN TURNS SLIGHTLY NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 05N137W WITH THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUING W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N89W TO 05.5N95.5W...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA S OF 10N BETWEEN 116W AND 140W. THE EMBEDDED TROUGH EXTENDS N-S FROM 08N87W TO 06N88W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED AT 28N130W AND IS BLOCKING THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS STALLING FROM 32N128W TO 29N140W. THE LEADING EDGE OF A BATCH OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...IN THE FORM OF 12-18 FT SEAS...IS ALONG POSITION FROM 32N129W TO 25N140W. NE 20-25 KT TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 07-18N TO THE W OF 122W WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT. LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL IS MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL....RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-11 FT ELSEWHERE W OF A LINE FROM 30N126W TO 22N109W TO 14N105W TO THE EQUATOR AT 107W. THE LEADING EDGE OF 12 FT SEAS OR GREATER WILL REACH FROM 32N120W TO 07N140W EARLY MON...THEN REACH THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE MON WITH A MAXIMUM OF 14 FT. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FROM THE N ON TUE...BUT EXPECT 6-9 FT SEAS ALONG BAJA N OF 24N AND 5-8 FT SEAS S OF 24N TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT 30N140W ON WED NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER BATCH OF LARGE NW SWELL. BEST GUESS IS SEAS OF 12 FT OR GREATER WILL ARRIVE AT THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AT SUNRISE FRI ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NW WINDS ALONG BAJA AND STRONG TRADES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG NE 20-25 KT WINDS WILL QUICKLY RESUME EARLY TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT WELL DOWNSTREAM...AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SUPPORTING FRESH NE MON AFTERNOON IN TO MON EVENING. THE PATTERN WILL REPEAT AGAIN EARLY MON NIGHT AND TUE NIGHT WITH NE 20-25 KT WINDS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY A 15-20 KT EVENT ON WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHTS. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH NW WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 27N AND STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED S OF 27N THROUGH MON MORNING. THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH MID WEEK WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED ON WED NIGHT INTO THU. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF EARLY FRI WITH STRONG NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT FRI AND SPREADING SE ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF BY LATE SAT. $$ NELSON