000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061004 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN DEC 06 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...30-40 KT GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS TO 18 FT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE GRADIENT FINALLY WILL RELAX DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SLOWER THAN GALE-FORCE BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. ONLY 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED DURING MAXIMUM DRAINAGE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ONLY 15 KNOTS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ FROM 03N93W TO 03N106W TO 05N121W TO 04N128W TO 05N133W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE ITCZ BETWEEN 117W AND 130W...AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF ITCZ W OF 136W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 06N BETWEEN BETWEEN 113W AND 114W...FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 127W AND 131W... AND FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 133W AND 138W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 09N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 07N78W AT THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...TO 05N80W AND 05N83W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 76W AND 81W. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 30N129W BEYOND 30N140W. THE FRONT ONLY IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA BRIEFLY...TO THE NORTH OF 29N ON SUNDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER... THAT IS NEAR 28N128W...BEYOND 25N140W. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT ARE TO THE NW OF THE RIDGE CONTINUE AT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 32N. THE FRONT WILL LOSE ITS IDENTITY TO THE SOUTH OF 32N ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE ACCOMPANYING LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...IN THE FORM OF 12-18 FT SEA HEIGHTS...THAT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH 30N140W TODAY...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF 12 FT SEAS OR GREATER REACHING A POSITION FROM 30N125W TO 17N140W DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE ALONG THE LINE FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA TO THE TROPICS NEAR 07N140W AROUND SUNSET ON MONDAY. CURRENTLY LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL IS MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL....WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 5-8 FT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FROM THE N ON SUN WITH 4-6 FT CONDITIONS FORECAST ALONG THE ENTIRE PENINSULA ON SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON...THEN WILL BUILD RAPIDLY AS THE NEXT BATCH OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NW SWELL ARRIVES LATER ON MON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATE THIS WEEK WITH STRONG NW WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NW COAST OF BAJA ON THU NIGHT AND SPREADING S TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF BAJA ON FRI. THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...CURRENT NE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS AROUND SUNSET ON SUNDAY. EXPECT 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS. THE PATTERN WILL REPEAT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY...LASTING UNTIL SUNSET ON MONDAY...AND THEN STARTING AGAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ONLY A 15-20 KT EVENT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE FROM 23N NORTHWARD...WITH SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET. THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH IN SIZE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...FROM 22N TO 28N. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH STARTING AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY MORNING...TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS. THE HIGHEST SEA HEIGHTS MAY REACH 6 FEET. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STRONG NW WINDS MAY RETURN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GULF WATERS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. $$ MT