000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052147 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT DEC 05 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...30-40 KT GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS...SEAS TO 19 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY ON SUN THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME WITH MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH MON EVENING. A 30 KT MAXIMUM IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF MON NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON WED. ONLY 25 KT EXPECTED DURING MAXIMUM DRAINAGE ON WED NIGHT AND ONLY 15 KT ON THU NIGHT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 05N75W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH APPEARING INTERMITTENTLY TO THE WSW OF THE LOW ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL EPAC. THE TROUGH WAS LAST ANALYZED FROM 08N77W TO 11N84W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CURRENTLY OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 03N81W TO 03N87W. SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ FORMS NEAR 04N89.5W AND CONTINUES SW TO 03N101W...THEN TURNS NW TO 05.5N126W...THEN SW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED 1010 MB LOW PRES AT 03.5N137W WITH THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUING SW TO BEYOND 03N140W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 90-105W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER AND THE THE N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N109W TO 07N123W...AND WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N123W TO 04N138W. ...DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...BUT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE AREA TO THE N OF 29.5N TONIGHT AND SUN. A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED NEAR 31N125W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 25N140W. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO THE NW OF THE RIDGE CONTINUE AT 15-20 KT EXCEPT 20-25 KT FROM 30-32N FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE FRONT WILL LOSE IDENTITY S OF 32N ON SUN. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE ACCOMPANYING BATCH OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...IN THE FORM OF 12- 18 FT SEAS...THAT WILL ARRIVE AT 30N140W TONIGHT...WITH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE LEADING 12 FT SEAS REACHING A POSITION FROM 32N126W TO 22N140W LATE SUN...AND FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA TO THE TROPICS NEAR 08N135W MON AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL IS MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL....WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 5-8 FT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FROM THE N ON SUN WITH 4-6 FT CONDITIONS FORECAST ALONG THE ENTIRE PENINSULA ON SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON...THEN RAPIDLY BUILDING AS THE NEXT BATCH OF NW SWELL PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED ARRIVES LATER ON MON. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATE THIS WEEK WITH STRONG NW WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NW COAST OF BAJA ON THU NIGHT AND SPREADING S TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF BAJA ON FRI. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE NE SURGES WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT THIS EVENING BUT QUICKLY INCREASE TO STRONG NE 20-25 KT WINDS...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT WELL DOWNSTREAM...EARLY TONIGHT...AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. THE PATTERN WILL REPEAT AGAIN EARLY SUN NIGHT...MON NIGHT AND ON TUE NIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY A 15-20 KT EVENT ON WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHTS. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TO THE S OF 28.5N...AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUN NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 20 KT. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD AS HIGH AS 6 FT IN LONG OPEN FETCH WATERS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONG NW WINDS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GULF WATERS ON THU NIGHT. $$ NELSON