000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051605 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT DEC 05 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE RECENT STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS THIS MORNING WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N96W TO 12N97W. SEAS ARE VERY LARGE...IN THE RANGE OF 13-19 FT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY. SEAS OF 9-15 FT IN MIXED SWELL WITH NE-E 20-30 KT ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 09N89W TO 02N104W TO 13N105W TO 16N95W AT THAT TIME. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... LOW PRESSURE OF 1010 MB NEAR 00N84W WITH TROUGH TO EQUATOR AT 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF LOW AND TROUGH. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N90W TO 03N102W TO 06N120W TO 05N131W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W-131W AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS W OF 131W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE AXIS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 07N108W TO 07N112W. ...DISCUSSION... REMNANTS OF A PREVIOUS COLD FRONT ARE SEEN AS SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW OVER THE FAR NE PART NEAR FAR NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS ANALYZED AT 32N125W WITH A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 23N114W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 110W. THE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORTS FRESH NE TRADES FROM ABOUT 07N-20N W OF 119W. COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS AREA OF TRADES ARE IN THE RANGE OF 8-12 FT DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL MIXING WITH NW SWELL. THE 1025 MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SW TO NEAR 29N129W BY EARLY SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE GRADEINT TO ITS S WITH TRADES BECOMING FRESH IN INTENSITY FROM 07N-19N W OF 129W AND WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT. THE TRADES EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH MON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IS REPLACED BY A LARGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS SE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITH THIS TAKING PLACE...A VERY LARGE AREA OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...GENERATED WELL TO THE NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA... PROPAGATES SE TO S OF 32N WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 12-16 FT REACHING TO NW OF A LINE FROM 32N122W TO 22N132W TO 15N140W BY 12Z MON. THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE STRONG NE TRADES FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA WESTWARD THROUGH GAPS BETWEEN HIGH TERRAIN IN NORTHERN COSTA RICA. THESE WINDS WILL PUSH OUT TO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO EARLY SUN...THEN DIMINISH SOME IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE STARTING UP AGAIN LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. SITE LOCATION LIBERIA (MLB) IN NORTHERN COSTA RICA IS REPORTING E WINDS OF 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AS OF 15 UTC THIS MORNING. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 8-9 FT...EXCEPT BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN EVENING THESE SEAS WILL BE DUE TO NE SWELL SPREADING SW AND MERGING WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL ALONG WITH A NW SWELL COMPONENT. THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...MODERATE TO STRONG NW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO COMMENCE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN OF THE U.S. AND INTERACTS WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE W COAST OF NW MEXICO. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPILL S OF THE GULF TO NEAR 22N BETWEEN 108W-109W BY SUN AFTERNOON. BY LATE SUN NIGHT...THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO MAINLY MODERATE INTENSITY AND REMAIN AT THOSE SPEEDS INTO MON WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT. $$ AGUIRRE